Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC preview
Tenerife faces AD Ceuta FC with a 62% chance to win, while Ceuta has just a 15% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% likelihood. Tenerife has an expected goals figure of 2.04, compared to Ceuta's 0.93, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Both teams to score has a 54% chance, which means there is a possibility that Ceuta could find the net, potentially impacting the match dynamics. Additionally, Tenerife's recent form shows they have drawn their last six matches, which could affect their performance.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC: model vs market
| Source | Tenerife | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.93.
- The market prices Tenerife below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tenerife, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife | 1.92 | 1.91 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.55 | -0.01 |
| AD Ceuta FC | 4.14 | 4.12 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Tenerife / AD Ceuta FC)
- 0.98 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Tenerife / AD Ceuta FC)
- 1.07 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tenerife goals. Columns: AD Ceuta FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tenerife | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tenerife or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or AD Ceuta FC) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tenerife win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC recent form
Tenerife
0W 5D 1L
AD Ceuta FC
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tenerife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AD Ceuta FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tenerife at home only, AD Ceuta FC away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Real Valladolid vs Castellón — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-14
- Almeria v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-14
- Mallorca vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Oviedo vs Girona 2026-11-14
- Granada vs Las Palmas — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Eibar v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-15
- Eldense v Sabadell — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Tenerife, previous: Granada – Tenerife, 2026-11-07
- Tenerife, next: Badajoz – Tenerife, 2026-11-18
- AD Ceuta FC, previous: Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC prediction