Badajoz vs Tenerife Prediction & Betting Tips 04/11/2026

Badajoz vs Tenerife preview

In the Copa del Rey match between Badajoz and Tenerife, the 1X2 probabilities show Tenerife at 58% to win, compared to Badajoz at 18%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of Badajoz 1.13 and Tenerife 1.73.

Tenerife's recent form includes four draws and one loss, which may impact their ability to secure a win. Additionally, while our model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, any defensive errors or a lack of finishing could lead to a lower-scoring game than anticipated.

Badajoz vs Tenerife: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Badajoz	Draw	Tenerife
Model	24%	26%	50%
Market	20%	25%	55%
Published	21%	25%	54%
Edge	+1%	0%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.13.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded 2026-11-03 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Badajoz vs Tenerife odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tenerife, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.60Now 1.67 +0.07

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Badajoz	5.00	4.65	-0.35
Draw	3.90	3.70	-0.20
Tenerife	1.60	1.67	+0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Badajoz and Tenerife expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13Badajoz

1.73Tenerife

Total expected goals: 2.86
Attack rating (Badajoz / Tenerife): 1.00 / 0.83
Defence rating (Badajoz / Tenerife): 1.00 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Badajoz vs Tenerife score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 8.8% 8.6% 4.9% 3.2% 1 5.4% 12.3% 9.7% 5.6% 3.6% 2 3.7% 6.3% 5.5% 3.1% 2.0% 3 1.4% 2.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Badajoz goals. Columns: Tenerife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Badajoz vs Tenerife goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Badajoz vs Tenerife

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Badajoz	21%	4.81
	Draw	25%	3.97
	Tenerife	54%	1.85
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.84
	Under 2.5	46%	2.19
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.76
	No	43%	2.31
Double chance	1X (Badajoz or draw)	46%	2.17
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Tenerife)	79%	1.26
Handicap -1	Tenerife win by 2+	28%	3.56
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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