Real Oviedo vs Girona preview
In the match between Real Oviedo and Girona, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Oviedo at 38%, Girona at 34%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 7% probability. Real Oviedo has an expected goals figure of 1.27, while Girona's is higher at 1.59, indicating Girona may have the edge in offensive potential.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Real Oviedo winning 3 of their last 5 matches and Girona winning 3 as well. The model suggests a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, if Girona's recent form continues to improve, they could disrupt Oviedo's home advantage.
Real Oviedo vs Girona: model vs market
| Source | Real Oviedo | Draw | Girona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Published | 37% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Real Oviedo vs Girona odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Oviedo, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo | 2.42 | 2.33 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.06 |
| Girona | 2.90 | 2.99 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Oviedo and Girona expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Real Oviedo / Girona)
- 1.26 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Real Oviedo / Girona)
- 1.19 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Oviedo vs Girona score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Oviedo goals. Columns: Girona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Oviedo vs Girona goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Oviedo vs Girona
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oviedo | 37% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Girona | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Oviedo or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Girona) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Oviedo win by 2+ | 13% | 7.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Oviedo and Girona recent form
Real Oviedo
3W 2D 1L
Girona
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Oviedo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Girona away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Oviedo at home only, Girona away only.
Real Oviedo vs Girona head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Real Oviedo 3 · draws 4 · Girona 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Real Oviedo | 1-0 | Girona | La Liga |
| 2025-10-25 | Girona | 3-3 | Real Oviedo | La Liga |
| 2022-03-06 | Girona | 2-1 | Real Oviedo | Segunda División |
| 2021-09-26 | Real Oviedo | 0-0 | Girona | Segunda División |
| 2021-04-25 | Real Oviedo | 0-1 | Girona | Segunda División |
| 2020-10-18 | Girona | 1-0 | Real Oviedo | Segunda División |
| 2020-01-26 | Girona | 1-1 | Real Oviedo | Segunda División |
| 2019-10-20 | Real Oviedo | 4-2 | Girona | Segunda División |
| 2017-03-25 | Real Oviedo | 2-0 | Girona | Segunda División |
| 2016-10-15 | Girona | 0-0 | Real Oviedo | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-14
- Almeria v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-14
- Mallorca vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Tenerife v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-15
- Granada vs Las Palmas — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Eibar v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-15
- Eldense v Sabadell — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Real Oviedo, previous: Cadiz v Real Oviedo analysis
- Girona, previous: Girona vs Almeria: odds and pick