Cadiz vs Real Oviedo preview
In the match between Cadiz and Real Oviedo, the 1X2 probabilities show Cadiz at 51%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). Cadiz has an expected goals figure of 1.94, while Real Oviedo sits at 1.33. With 63% for Over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, there is a strong chance of a high-scoring game.
However, Cadiz's recent form includes two losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Real Oviedo has shown resilience with three wins in their last five games, indicating they could challenge Cadiz effectively. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo: model vs market
| Source | Cadiz | Draw | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cadiz below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cadiz, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz | 2.79 | 2.68 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.16 | 3.12 | -0.04 |
| Real Oviedo | 2.71 | 2.62 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cadiz and Real Oviedo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Cadiz / Real Oviedo)
- 1.12 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Cadiz / Real Oviedo)
- 1.03 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cadiz goals. Columns: Real Oviedo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cadiz vs Real Oviedo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cadiz vs Real Oviedo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Real Oviedo | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cadiz or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Oviedo) | 62% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cadiz win by 2+ | 30% | 3.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cadiz and Real Oviedo recent form
Cadiz
3W 0D 3L
Real Oviedo
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cadiz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Oviedo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cadiz at home only, Real Oviedo away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Castellón vs Eibar — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Burgos v Celta de Vigo II — match page 2026-11-07
- Leganes vs Albacete — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Granada vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Andorra vs Mallorca 2026-11-08
- Girona vs Almeria 2026-11-08
- Las Palmas v Eldense — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Cadiz, previous: Mallorca vs Cadiz: odds and pick
- Real Oviedo, previous: Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas: odds and pick