Girona vs Almeria preview
In the match between Girona and Almeria, Girona has a 45% chance to win, while Almeria sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which accounts for 11% of outcomes. Girona’s expected goals are 1.43 compared to Almeria’s 1.05, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions. Both teams to score stands at 51%, meaning there is a reasonable chance that both sides could find the net. Almeria's recent form shows they are on a winning streak, which could challenge Girona's home advantage.
Why this pick: Girona vs Almeria
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Girona 10, Almeria 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Girona vs Almeria: model vs market
| Source | Girona | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 29% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 28% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.05.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Girona vs Almeria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Girona, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 2.03 | 2.01 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.58 | -0.07 |
| Almeria | 3.40 | 3.32 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Girona and Almeria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Girona / Almeria)
- 1.23 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Girona / Almeria)
- 0.67 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Girona vs Almeria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Girona goals. Columns: Almeria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Girona vs Almeria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Girona vs Almeria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Almeria | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Girona or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Almeria) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win by 2+ | 22% | 4.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Girona and Almeria recent form
Girona
3W 2D 1L
Almeria
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Girona at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almeria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Girona at home only, Almeria away only.
Girona vs Almeria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Girona 1 · draws 1 · Almeria 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-14 | Almeria | 0-0 | Girona | La Liga |
| 2023-10-22 | Girona | 5-2 | Almeria | La Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Granada vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Andorra vs Mallorca 2026-11-08
- Las Palmas v Eldense — match page 2026-11-08
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Before and after this match
- Girona, previous: Real Sociedad II v Girona analysis
- Almeria, previous: Eibar v Almeria analysis