Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid preview
Sporting Gijon faces Real Valladolid with a 43% chance of winning compared to Valladolid's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Sporting Gijon's strong recent form of 5 wins in 6 matches. Their expected goals stand at 1.69, while Valladolid has a lower expected goals figure of 1.17.
However, both teams to score is at 58%, indicating that Valladolid could find the net despite their recent struggles. Sporting Gijon has won once and drawn once in their last two head-to-head matches against Valladolid, who have not secured a win. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Gijon | Draw | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting Gijon, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijon | 2.36 | 2.24 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.21 | -0.11 |
| Real Valladolid | 3.16 | 3.12 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting Gijon and Real Valladolid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Sporting Gijon / Real Valladolid)
- 1.10 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Sporting Gijon / Real Valladolid)
- 0.91 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Gijon goals. Columns: Real Valladolid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Gijon | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Real Valladolid | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Gijon or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Valladolid) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Gijon win by 2+ | 26% | 3.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sporting Gijon and Real Valladolid recent form
Sporting Gijon
5W 0D 1L
Real Valladolid
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting Gijon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Real Valladolid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Gijon at home only, Real Valladolid away only.
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sporting Gijon 1 · draws 1 · Real Valladolid 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Sporting Gijon | 2-2 | Real Valladolid | Segunda División |
| 2025-10-19 | Real Valladolid | 2-3 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cadiz vs Real Oviedo 2026-11-07
- Leganes vs Albacete — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Granada vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Andorra vs Mallorca 2026-11-08
- Girona vs Almeria 2026-11-08
- Las Palmas v Eldense — match page 2026-11-08
- Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Sporting Gijon, previous: AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon prediction
- Real Valladolid, previous: Real Valladolid – Leganes, 2026-11-02