Trival Valderas vs Leganes Prediction & Betting Tips 10/11/2026

Trival Valderas vs Leganes preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Trival Valderas and Leganes, the 1X2 probabilities show Leganes at 71%, while Trival Valderas stands at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a probability of 8%. Leganes has struggled recently, recording five consecutive losses, which could impact their performance despite the favorable odds.

The model predicts a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score. Expected goals are close, with Trival Valderas at 1.36 and Leganes at 1.32. If Leganes continues their poor form, it may lead to a different outcome than anticipated.

Trival Valderas vs Leganes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Trival Valderas	Draw	Leganes
Model	37%	28%	35%
Market	5%	13%	82%
Published	13%	17%	71%
Edge	+8%	+4%	-12%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded 2026-10-28 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Trival Valderas vs Leganes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leganes, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.22Now 1.10 -0.12

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Trival Valderas	13.00	18.50	+5.50
Draw	5.80	7.10	+1.30
Leganes	1.22	1.10	-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Trival Valderas and Leganes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Trival Valderas

1.32Leganes

Total expected goals: 2.68
Attack rating (Trival Valderas / Leganes): 1.00 / 0.64
Defence rating (Trival Valderas / Leganes): 1.00 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Trival Valderas vs Leganes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 7.8% 6.0% 2.6% 1.2% 1 8.1% 13.5% 8.1% 3.6% 1.6% 2 6.3% 8.4% 5.5% 2.4% 1.1% 3 2.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Trival Valderas goals. Columns: Leganes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Trival Valderas vs Leganes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Trival Valderas vs Leganes

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Trival Valderas	13%	7.79
	Draw	17%	6.00
	Leganes	71%	1.42
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	1.99
	Under 2.5	50%	2.01
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.26
Double chance	1X (Trival Valderas or draw)	29%	3.39
	12 (either side)	83%	1.20
	X2 (draw or Leganes)	87%	1.15
Handicap -1	Leganes win by 2+	16%	6.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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