Castellón vs Eibar preview
In the fixture between Castellón and Eibar, the 1X2 probabilities show Castellón at 70%, draw at 20%, and Eibar at 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Castellón's expected goals are 2.18, while Eibar's are significantly lower at 0.70.
However, Castellón's recent form includes a mix of results with 3 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw in their last 5 matches. Eibar, on the other hand, has shown improvement with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games. This recent performance could impact the outcome, making it possible for Eibar to challenge Castellón despite the statistical edge.
Castellón vs Eibar: model vs market
| Source | Castellón | Draw | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Castellón below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Castellón vs Eibar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Castellón, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1.65 | 1.61 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.26 | 4.05 | -0.21 |
| Eibar | 4.98 | 4.83 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Castellón and Eibar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Castellón / Eibar)
- 1.43 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Castellón / Eibar)
- 0.54 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Castellón vs Eibar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Castellón goals. Columns: Eibar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Castellón vs Eibar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Castellón vs Eibar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Eibar | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Castellón or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Eibar) | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win by 2+ | 43% | 2.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Castellón and Eibar recent form
Castellón
3W 2D 1L
Eibar
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Castellón at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eibar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Castellón at home only, Eibar away only.
Castellón vs Eibar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Castellón 1 · draws 1 · Eibar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Castellón | 2-1 | Eibar | Segunda División |
| 2025-10-12 | Eibar | 0-0 | Castellón | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Burgos v Celta de Vigo II — match page 2026-11-07
- Cadiz vs Real Oviedo 2026-11-07
- Leganes vs Albacete — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Granada vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Andorra vs Mallorca 2026-11-08
- Girona vs Almeria 2026-11-08
- Las Palmas v Eldense — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Castellón, previous: Burgos – Castellón, 2026-11-01
- Eibar, previous: Pamplona vs Eibar: odds and pick