Eibar vs Almeria preview
Eibar faces Almeria with a 37% chance of winning and a predicted scoreline of 2-1 at 8%. Eibar's expected goals stand at 1.40, while Almeria's is slightly higher at 1.60. This indicates a competitive match where both teams could find the net, supported by a 61% probability for both teams to score.
Eibar's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Almeria has been strong with 5 consecutive wins. However, Eibar has a mixed record with 1 win in their last 2 head-to-head encounters against Almeria. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Eibar vs Almeria: model vs market
| Source | Eibar | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Eibar vs Almeria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eibar, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 2.45 | 2.43 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.38 | +0.04 |
| Almeria | 2.84 | 2.76 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eibar and Almeria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Eibar / Almeria)
- 1.19 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Eibar / Almeria)
- 0.98 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eibar vs Almeria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eibar goals. Columns: Almeria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eibar vs Almeria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eibar vs Almeria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Almeria | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eibar or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Almeria) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win by 2+ | 15% | 6.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Eibar and Almeria recent form
Eibar
3W 1D 2L
Almeria
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eibar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almeria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Eibar at home only, Almeria away only.
Eibar vs Almeria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Eibar 1 · draws 0 · Almeria 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Eibar | 1-0 | Almeria | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-01 | Almeria | 3-1 | Eibar | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Real Sociedad II v Girona — match page 2026-10-31
- Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Albacete vs Sabadell 2026-10-31
- Eldense vs Granada — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-01
- Burgos vs Castellón 2026-11-01
- Tenerife v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-01
- Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Eibar, previous: Pamplona vs Eibar: odds and pick
- Almeria, previous: Castellonense v Almeria analysis