Eldense vs Granada preview
Eldense faces Granada with 45% probability of winning and a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. Eldense has an expected goals figure of 1.66, while Granada sits at 1.30, indicating a potentially open match.
However, the recent form shows Eldense with three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Granada has four wins and two losses. This could influence the match outcome, especially if Granada's form improves. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Eldense vs Granada: model vs market
| Source | Eldense | Draw | Granada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Eldense vs Granada odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eldense, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense | 2.24 | 2.26 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.39 | 3.34 | -0.05 |
| Granada | 3.08 | 2.98 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eldense and Granada expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Eldense / Granada)
- 1.02 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Eldense / Granada)
- 1.04 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eldense vs Granada score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eldense goals. Columns: Granada goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eldense vs Granada goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eldense vs Granada
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eldense | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Granada | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eldense or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Granada) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eldense win by 2+ | 20% | 5.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Eldense and Granada recent form
Eldense
3W 0D 3L
Granada
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eldense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Granada away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Eldense at home only, Granada away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Real Sociedad II v Girona — match page 2026-10-31
- Eibar vs Almeria — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Albacete vs Sabadell 2026-10-31
- AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-01
- Burgos vs Castellón 2026-11-01
- Tenerife v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-01
- Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Eldense, previous: Atlético Baleares vs Eldense: odds and pick
- Granada, previous: Cieza – Granada, 2026-10-28