Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas preview
In the match between Real Oviedo and Las Palmas, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Oviedo at 54%, while Las Palmas sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Real Oviedo's expected goals are 1.82, compared to Las Palmas' 1.05, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side.
However, the recent form could influence the outcome. Real Oviedo has a mixed record with D-W-W-L-W-L, while Las Palmas has struggled, recording W-L-L-D-L-L. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected results, affecting predictions like Over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 56%.
Why this pick: Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Oviedo 10, Las Palmas 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas: model vs market
| Source | Real Oviedo | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Oviedo, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo | 1.73 | 1.73 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.60 | -0.14 |
| Las Palmas | 4.49 | 4.43 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Oviedo and Las Palmas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Real Oviedo / Las Palmas)
- 1.03 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Real Oviedo / Las Palmas)
- 1.00 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Oviedo goals. Columns: Las Palmas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oviedo | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Las Palmas | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Oviedo or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Las Palmas) | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Oviedo win by 2+ | 31% | 3.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Real Oviedo and Las Palmas recent form
Real Oviedo
3W 1D 2L
Las Palmas
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Oviedo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Palmas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Oviedo at home only, Las Palmas away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Albacete vs Sabadell 2026-10-31
- Eldense vs Granada — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-01
- Burgos vs Castellón 2026-11-01
- Tenerife v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-01
- Real Valladolid vs Leganes — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Mallorca v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Real Oviedo, previous: Numancia vs Real Oviedo: odds and pick
- Las Palmas, previous: RSD Alcalá – Las Palmas, 2026-10-27