Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 12

Tenerife vs FC Andorra

Alin prediction Tenerife to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TenerifeDrawFC Andorra
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.03.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Tenerife vs FC Andorra preview

In the match between Tenerife and FC Andorra, the 1X2 probabilities show Tenerife at 47%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%. FC Andorra has a 24% chance of winning, while the draw stands at 28%. The expected goals indicate Tenerife at 1.51 and FC Andorra at 1.03, suggesting a tighter contest.

However, there are factors that could change the outcome. Both teams to score is at 51%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. Additionally, Tenerife's recent form of D-D-D-L-D-L contrasts with FC Andorra's L-W-D-W-L-L, which could impact their performance. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the prediction.

Tenerife vs FC Andorra: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTenerifeDrawFC Andorra
Model47%28%24%
Market———
Published47%28%24%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.03.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tenerife and FC Andorra expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Tenerife
1.03FC Andorra
Total expected goals
2.54
Attack rating (Tenerife / FC Andorra)
0.91 / 0.87
Defence rating (Tenerife / FC Andorra)
1.01 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tenerife vs FC Andorra score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 6.9% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 1 10.7% 13.5% 6.3% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.0% 9.3% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 3 4.6% 4.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 2.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Tenerife goals. Columns: FC Andorra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tenerife vs FC Andorra goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tenerife vs FC Andorra

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tenerife47%2.11
Draw28%3.54
FC Andorra24%4.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.15
Under 2.553%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.95
No49%2.05
Double chance1X (Tenerife or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or FC Andorra)53%1.90
Handicap -1Tenerife win by 2+25%4.07
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Tenerife and FC Andorra recent form

Tenerife 0W 4D 2L
FC Andorra 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tenerife at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

FC Andorra away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Tenerife at home only, FC Andorra away only.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Tenerife to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Tenerife