Burgos vs Castellón preview
In the match between Burgos and Castellón, the 1X2 probabilities suggest Castellón has a 46% chance to win, compared to Burgos at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 17% probability. Burgos has shown mixed recent form with 4 wins and 2 losses, while Castellón has been more consistent, winning 5 of their last 6 matches.
The expected goals indicate Burgos at 0.70 and Castellón at 1.13, which supports Castellón's stronger position. However, the possibility of a draw at 29% and the lower chances of Over 2.5 goals at 28% could make the outcome less predictable. Both teams to score has a 35% probability, suggesting that while Castellón may win, Burgos could still find the net.
Burgos vs Castellón: model vs market
| Source | Burgos | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 34% | 44% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Published | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.70.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Burgos vs Castellón odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Castellón, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 3.62 | 2.75 | -0.87 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.29 | -0.23 |
| Castellón | 2.07 | 2.47 | +0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Burgos and Castellón expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.83
- Attack rating (Burgos / Castellón)
- 0.89 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Burgos / Castellón)
- 0.67 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burgos vs Castellón score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burgos goals. Columns: Castellón goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burgos vs Castellón goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burgos vs Castellón
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Castellón | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.82 |
| No | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burgos or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Castellón) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win by 2+ | 19% | 5.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Burgos and Castellón recent form
Burgos
4W 0D 2L
Castellón
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burgos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burgos at home only, Castellón away only.
Burgos vs Castellón head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Burgos 0 · draws 1 · Castellón 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Castellón | 3-1 | Burgos | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-10 | Burgos | 0-0 | Castellón | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Eibar vs Almeria — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Albacete vs Sabadell 2026-10-31
- Eldense vs Granada — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-01
- Tenerife v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-01
- Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Burgos, previous: Laredo – Burgos, 2026-10-29
- Castellón, previous: Conquense vs Castellón: odds and pick