AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon preview
In the match between AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon, the 1X2 probabilities show Sporting Gijon at 42% to win, while AD Ceuta FC stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown varying form recently, with AD Ceuta FC recording three losses in their last five matches, while Sporting Gijon has won four out of their last five.
The model indicates a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability for both teams to score. However, AD Ceuta FC's recent struggles could impact their performance, making it possible for the match to end differently than predicted.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon: model vs market
| Source | AD Ceuta FC | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting Gijon, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 2.63 | 2.59 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.42 | +0.02 |
| Sporting Gijon | 2.49 | 2.50 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (AD Ceuta FC / Sporting Gijon)
- 0.84 / 0.95
- Defence rating (AD Ceuta FC / Sporting Gijon)
- 1.39 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AD Ceuta FC goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Ceuta FC | 34% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Sporting Gijon | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AD Ceuta FC or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Gijon) | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Gijon win by 2+ | 22% | 4.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon recent form
AD Ceuta FC
1W 2D 3L
Sporting Gijon
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AD Ceuta FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Gijon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC at home only, Sporting Gijon away only.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AD Ceuta FC 1 · draws 0 · Sporting Gijon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sporting Gijon | 1-2 | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División |
| 2025-08-23 | AD Ceuta FC | 0-1 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Eibar vs Almeria — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Albacete vs Sabadell 2026-10-31
- Eldense vs Granada — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Burgos vs Castellón 2026-11-01
- Tenerife v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-01
- Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- AD Ceuta FC, previous: Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: odds and pick
- Sporting Gijon, previous: Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijon prediction