Las Palmas vs Castellón preview
In the match between Las Palmas and Castellón, the 1X2 probabilities show Las Palmas at 19%, a draw at 25%, and Castellón at 55%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance. Castellón's recent form is strong, with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Las Palmas has struggled, recording 3 losses in their last 6.
The expected goals indicate Las Palmas at 0.97 and Castellón at 1.78, suggesting Castellón is likely to score. Both teams to score sits at 53%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 52%. These factors could lead to a different outcome if Las Palmas improves their performance or if Castellón fails to convert their chances.
Las Palmas vs Castellón: model vs market
| Source | Las Palmas | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Published | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Edge | -8% | +1% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Castellón below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Las Palmas vs Castellón odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Castellón, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 3.40 | 3.42 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Castellón | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Las Palmas and Castellón expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (Las Palmas / Castellón)
- 1.02 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Las Palmas / Castellón)
- 1.29 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Las Palmas vs Castellón score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Las Palmas goals. Columns: Castellón goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Las Palmas vs Castellón goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Las Palmas vs Castellón
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Palmas | 25% | 3.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Castellón | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Las Palmas or draw) | 50% | 1.98 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Castellón) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win by 2+ | 32% | 3.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Las Palmas and Castellón recent form
Las Palmas
1W 2D 3L
Castellón
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Las Palmas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Las Palmas at home only, Castellón away only.
Las Palmas vs Castellón head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Las Palmas 0 · draws 1 · Castellón 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Las Palmas | 1-1 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-30 | Castellón | 1-0 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Real Sociedad II v Almeria — match page 2026-10-17
- Eibar vs Mallorca 2026-10-17
- Sporting Gijon v Albacete — match page 2026-10-17
- AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Granada vs Cadiz — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Girona v FC Andorra — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Valladolid vs Eldense 2026-10-18
- Burgos vs Sabadell 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Las Palmas, previous: Mallorca v Las Palmas analysis
- Las Palmas, next: RSD Alcalá – Las Palmas, 2026-10-27
- Castellón, previous: FC Andorra vs Castellón: odds and pick