RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between RSD Alcalá and Las Palmas, the 1X2 probabilities show Las Palmas at 58%, while RSD Alcalá stands at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. The expected goals indicate RSD Alcalá at 1.19 and Las Palmas at 2.11, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the visitors.
The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 62%. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as RSD Alcalá has lost their last match, while Las Palmas has a mixed record of L-D-L-L-W-D. This inconsistency may lead to unexpected results.
RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas: model vs market
| Source | RSD Alcalá | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
RSD Alcalá and Las Palmas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (RSD Alcalá / Las Palmas)
- 0.83 / 0.87
- Defence rating (RSD Alcalá / Las Palmas)
- 1.24 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RSD Alcalá goals. Columns: Las Palmas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RSD Alcalá | 20% | 5.05 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Las Palmas | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RSD Alcalá or draw) | 42% | 2.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Las Palmas) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Las Palmas win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
RSD Alcalá and Las Palmas recent form
RSD Alcalá
0W 0D 1L
Las Palmas
1W 2D 3L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Las Palmas, previous: Las Palmas vs Castellón prediction