Atlético Paso vs Cordoba preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Atlético Paso and Cordoba, the 1X2 probabilities show Cordoba at 46%, compared to Atlético Paso's 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 60% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%.
Atlético Paso's expected goals are 1.27, while Cordoba's are higher at 1.69. Recent form shows Atlético Paso lost their last match, while Cordoba has mixed results with two wins and four losses in their last six games. This context could influence the outcome, particularly if either team can improve their performance.
Atlético Paso vs Cordoba: model vs market
| Source | Atlético Paso | Draw | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atlético Paso and Cordoba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Atlético Paso / Cordoba)
- 0.83 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Atlético Paso / Cordoba)
- 0.94 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlético Paso vs Cordoba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlético Paso goals. Columns: Cordoba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlético Paso vs Cordoba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlético Paso vs Cordoba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Paso | 28% | 3.61 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Cordoba | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlético Paso or draw) | 54% | 1.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Cordoba) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cordoba win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlético Paso and Cordoba recent form
Atlético Paso
0W 0D 1L
Cordoba
2W 0D 4L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Cordoba, previous: Leganes – Cordoba, 2026-10-16