Llanera vs Ponferradina preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Llanera and Ponferradina, the 1X2 probabilities show Ponferradina at 53% to win, while Llanera sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a close contest, while Over 2.5 goals is at 49%, suggesting a moderate likelihood of a high-scoring match.
Llanera's expected goals are 0.97, significantly lower than Ponferradina's 1.68. This disparity in expected goals could lead to a scenario where Llanera fails to find the net, impacting the prediction. Additionally, recent form shows Llanera has lost their last match, while Ponferradina has a mixed record with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last four matches.
Llanera vs Ponferradina: model vs market
| Source | Llanera | Draw | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 5 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Llanera and Ponferradina expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Llanera / Ponferradina)
- 0.83 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Llanera / Ponferradina)
- 1.04 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Llanera vs Ponferradina score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Llanera goals. Columns: Ponferradina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Llanera vs Ponferradina goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Llanera vs Ponferradina
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llanera | 21% | 4.87 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Ponferradina | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Llanera or draw) | 47% | 2.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Ponferradina) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ponferradina win by 2+ | 30% | 3.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Llanera and Ponferradina recent form
Llanera
0W 0D 1L
Ponferradina
1W 2D 2L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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