Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes preview
In the Copa del Rey match between Atlético Tordesillas and Mirandes, the 1X2 probabilities show Mirandes at 49%, while Atlético Tordesillas sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.24 for Atlético Tordesillas and 1.78 for Mirandes.
The model suggests a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability for both teams to score. However, the recent form of Atlético Tordesillas, who have lost their last match, could impact their performance. Mirandes, with a mixed recent record of L-W-D-L-L-W, may also struggle to find consistency.
Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes: model vs market
| Source | Atlético Tordesillas | Draw | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atlético Tordesillas and Mirandes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Atlético Tordesillas / Mirandes)
- 0.94 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Atlético Tordesillas / Mirandes)
- 1.04 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlético Tordesillas goals. Columns: Mirandes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Tordesillas | 25% | 3.93 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Mirandes | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlético Tordesillas or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Mirandes) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mirandes win by 2+ | 28% | 3.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlético Tordesillas and Mirandes recent form
Atlético Tordesillas
0W 0D 1L
Mirandes
2W 1D 3L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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