Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture, Gimnástica Segoviana faces Cultural Leonesa with 33% chances for the home team to win, compared to 38% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Cultural Leonesa's slight edge in expected goals at 1.35 over Gimnástica Segoviana's 1.24.
Both teams to score has a probability of 54%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 48%. However, Gimnástica Segoviana's recent form shows a loss, while Cultural Leonesa has drawn and lost in their last matches. This inconsistency could impact the match outcome, making it less predictable.
Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa: model vs market
| Source | Gimnástica Segoviana | Draw | Cultural Leonesa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gimnástica Segoviana and Cultural Leonesa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Gimnástica Segoviana / Cultural Leonesa)
- 0.94 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Gimnástica Segoviana / Cultural Leonesa)
- 1.04 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnástica Segoviana goals. Columns: Cultural Leonesa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 33% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Cultural Leonesa | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnástica Segoviana or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Cultural Leonesa) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cultural Leonesa win by 2+ | 18% | 5.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gimnástica Segoviana and Cultural Leonesa recent form
Gimnástica Segoviana
0W 0D 1L
Cultural Leonesa
1W 2D 3L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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