Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II: model vs market
| Source | Celta de Vigo II | Draw | Real Sociedad II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celta de Vigo II, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta de Vigo II | 2.26 | 2.21 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.50 | -0.08 |
| Real Sociedad II | 3.12 | 2.88 | -0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celta de Vigo II and Real Sociedad II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Celta de Vigo II / Real Sociedad II)
- 0.96 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Celta de Vigo II / Real Sociedad II)
- 1.26 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celta de Vigo II goals. Columns: Real Sociedad II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta de Vigo II | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Real Sociedad II | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celta de Vigo II or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Sociedad II) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta de Vigo II win by 2+ | 22% | 4.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Celta de Vigo II and Real Sociedad II recent form
Celta de Vigo II
1W 1D 4L
Real Sociedad II
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celta de Vigo II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celta de Vigo II at home only, Real Sociedad II away only.
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