Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II

· Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo· Referee Gordillo, Juan

Full time4 – 1

Alin prediction was Celta de Vigo II to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Celta de Vigo IIDrawReal Sociedad II

Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCelta de Vigo IIDrawReal Sociedad II
Model42%25%33%
Market37%28%36%
Published38%27%35%
Edge+1%-1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celta de Vigo II, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.26Now 2.55 +0.29
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Celta de Vigo II2.262.55+0.29
Draw3.583.34-0.24
Real Sociedad II3.122.62-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celta de Vigo II and Real Sociedad II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Celta de Vigo II
1.48Real Sociedad II
Total expected goals
3.18
Attack rating (Celta de Vigo II / Real Sociedad II)
0.95 / 1.00
Defence rating (Celta de Vigo II / Real Sociedad II)
1.26 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 2.2% 1.2% 1 6.0% 11.5% 7.7% 3.8% 2.0% 2 6.0% 8.9% 6.6% 3.3% 1.7% 3 3.4% 5.0% 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% 4+ 2.1% 3.1% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6%

Rows: Celta de Vigo II goals. Columns: Real Sociedad II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Celta de Vigo II38%2.64
Draw27%3.67
Real Sociedad II35%2.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.61
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.79
Double chance1X (Celta de Vigo II or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Real Sociedad II)62%1.61
Handicap -1Celta de Vigo II win by 2+22%4.45
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Celta de Vigo II and Real Sociedad II recent form

Celta de Vigo II 1W 1D 4L
Real Sociedad II 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Celta de Vigo II at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Sociedad II away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.

League matches this season before kick-off: Celta de Vigo II at home only, Real Sociedad II away only.

Expected lineups

Celta de Vigo II lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Coke Carrillo
  2. 18 Joel López
  3. 3 K. Ribes
  4. 21 Alexis Olmedo
  5. 11 Ángel Arcos
  6. 29 M. Sobral
  7. 16 Adrià Capdevila
  8. 2 P. Gavian
  9. 10 O. Marcos
  10. 9 A. Marin
  11. 15 A. Kibet

Bench: S. M. Ndiaye, Caio Barone, Jan Oliveras, H. Cuenca, A. Davila Outerelo, G. Miller, M. Gonzalez, Raúl Blanco

Real Sociedad II lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Aitor Fraga
  2. 3 Jon Balda
  3. 5 K. Kita
  4. 15 I. Calderon
  5. 22 Rupérez
  6. 16 Gorka Gorosabel
  7. 6 A. Lebarbier
  8. 14 Tomás Carbonell
  9. 17 Lander Astiazarán
  10. 20 Sydney Osazuwa
  11. 7 Dani Díaz

Bench: Jon Garro, Ibai Aguirre, J. Oleaga, Javier Soroeta, Jon Eceizabarrena, Unax Agote, A. Unax, Lander Olasagasti, Andrews Adjabeng

Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Celta de Vigo II 1 · draws 1 · Real Sociedad II 2.

Celta de Vigo IIDrawsReal Sociedad II
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-05-24Real Sociedad II2-0Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
2025-01-11Celta de Vigo II2-1Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
2024-05-04Real Sociedad II0-0Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
2023-11-26Celta de Vigo II1-2Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match