Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

Real Oviedo vs Eibar

· Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo· Referee Morales Moreno Pablo

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Eibar to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 2

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real OviedoDrawEibar

Real Oviedo vs Eibar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal OviedoDrawEibar
Model17%25%58%
Market40%30%31%
Published34%29%37%
Edge-6%-1%+7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Eibar below our published probability: +6.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Oviedo vs Eibar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Eibar, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 3.14Now 3.02 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Oviedo2.302.33+0.03
Draw3.123.10-0.02
Eibar3.143.02-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Oviedo and Eibar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.89Real Oviedo
1.82Eibar
Total expected goals
2.71
Attack rating (Real Oviedo / Eibar)
0.74 / 1.50
Defence rating (Real Oviedo / Eibar)
1.03 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Oviedo vs Eibar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 11.0% 11.0% 6.7% 4.6% 1 4.8% 11.8% 9.8% 6.0% 4.1% 2 2.6% 4.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.8% 3 0.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Real Oviedo goals. Columns: Eibar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Oviedo vs Eibar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Oviedo vs Eibar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Oviedo34%2.95
Draw29%3.50
Eibar37%2.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.04
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.98
No49%2.02
Double chance1X (Real Oviedo or draw)63%1.60
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Eibar)66%1.51
Handicap -1Eibar win by 2+34%2.91
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Oviedo and Eibar recent form

Real Oviedo 3W 1D 2L
Eibar 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Oviedo at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Eibar away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Oviedo at home only, Eibar away only.

Expected lineups

Real Oviedo lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 Aarón Escandell
  2. 23 Carlos Domínguez
  3. 15 S. Rodriguez
  4. 12 Dani Calvo
  5. 21 David Jiménez
  6. 10 Alberto Reina
  7. 5 Y. Didi
  8. 16 Aritz Aldasoro
  9. 8 Mikel Goti
  10. 18 V. Mingo
  11. 32 Enzo Perez

Bench: Miguel Narváez, Aisar, David Costas, Dani Villahermosa, Jacobo González, Pablo Sáenz, Nacho Vidal, José Luis Morales, D. Menendez, Marco Esteban

Eibar lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Jon Mikel
  2. 24 Juan Bernat
  3. 23 Anaitz Arbilla
  4. 4 Unai Elgezabal
  5. 22 Álvaro Rodríguez
  6. 30 Aleix Garrido
  7. 8 Ander Madariaga
  8. 10 Jon Guruzeta
  9. 11 Jon Magunazelaia
  10. 7 Malcom Adu
  11. 9 Jon Bautista

Bench: Luis López, Sergio Cubero, Imanol García de Albéniz, Peru Nolaskoain, Olaetxea, Jair Amador, Pejiño, M. Arana, Eric Pérez, Javi Martón, Iván Gil, Lucas Nuñez

Real Oviedo vs Eibar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Oviedo 3 · draws 5 · Eibar 2.

Real OviedoDrawsEibar
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-05Eibar1-1Real OviedoSegunda División
2024-09-29Real Oviedo1-0EibarSegunda División
2024-06-12Eibar0-2Real OviedoSegunda División
2024-06-08Real Oviedo0-0EibarSegunda División
2024-06-02Eibar4-3Real OviedoSegunda División
2023-11-19Real Oviedo2-1EibarSegunda División
2023-04-01Real Oviedo1-1EibarSegunda División
2022-12-11Eibar1-0Real OviedoSegunda División
2022-07-23Real Oviedo0-0EibarFriendlies Clubs
2022-01-10Real Oviedo1-1EibarSegunda División

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match