Tudelano vs Zaragoza preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Tudelano and Zaragoza, the 1X2 probabilities show Zaragoza at 47% to win, compared to Tudelano's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at 11%. Zaragoza's recent form includes five consecutive losses, which could impact their performance despite being favored.
The expected goals indicate Tudelano at 1.01 and Zaragoza at 1.48, suggesting a tighter match than the probabilities imply. The model predicts a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score. If Tudelano improves their form or Zaragoza continues to struggle, these predictions may not hold.
Tudelano vs Zaragoza: model vs market
| Source | Tudelano | Draw | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.01.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tudelano and Zaragoza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Tudelano / Zaragoza)
- 0.83 / 0.57
- Defence rating (Tudelano / Zaragoza)
- 1.35 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tudelano vs Zaragoza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tudelano goals. Columns: Zaragoza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tudelano vs Zaragoza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tudelano vs Zaragoza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tudelano | 24% | 4.08 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Zaragoza | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tudelano or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Zaragoza) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zaragoza win by 2+ | 24% | 4.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tudelano and Zaragoza recent form
Tudelano
0W 0D 1L
Zaragoza
0W 1D 5L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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