Manacor vs Villarreal Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Manacor vs Villarreal preview

In the Copa del Rey match between Manacor and Villarreal, the 1X2 probabilities show Villarreal at 66%, compared to Manacor's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Villarreal's expected goals stand at 2.64, while Manacor's is 1.28, indicating a clear attacking advantage for Villarreal.

Both teams to score has a probability of 68%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 75%. However, if Manacor can improve their performance or if Villarreal struggles to convert their chances, these predictions could be affected. Villarreal's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 losses, which might also impact their consistency in this match.

Manacor vs Villarreal: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Manacor	Draw	Villarreal
Model	16%	18%	66%
Market	—	—	—
Published	16%	18%	66%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.28.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Manacor and Villarreal expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Manacor

2.64Villarreal

Total expected goals: 3.92
Attack rating (Manacor / Villarreal): 1.00 / 1.36
Defence rating (Manacor / Villarreal): 1.00 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manacor vs Villarreal score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 4.6% 6.9% 6.1% 7.6% 1 1.9% 7.4% 8.9% 7.8% 9.7% 2 1.6% 4.3% 5.6% 5.0% 6.2% 3 0.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.6% 4+ 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1%

Rows: Manacor goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manacor vs Villarreal goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 75%

Over 3.5 55%

Both teams to score: 68%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manacor vs Villarreal

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Manacor	16%	6.33
	Draw	18%	5.46
	Villarreal	66%	1.52
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.33
	Under 2.5	25%	3.99
Both teams to score	Yes	68%	1.48
	No	32%	3.09
Double chance	1X (Manacor or draw)	34%	2.93
	12 (either side)	82%	1.22
	X2 (draw or Villarreal)	84%	1.19
Handicap -1	Villarreal win by 2+	46%	2.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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