Arosa vs Pontevedra Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Arosa vs Pontevedra preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture, Arosa faces Pontevedra with 23% chances of winning for Arosa, 26% for a draw, and 51% for Pontevedra. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.09 for Arosa and 1.73 for Pontevedra.

Both teams have a 56% probability of scoring, and there is a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals in the match. Arosa's recent form is not available, while Pontevedra comes in with a record of L-D-L-W-W-W. These factors indicate that Pontevedra is the stronger side, but upsets can happen in knockout matches like this.

Arosa vs Pontevedra: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Arosa	Draw	Pontevedra
Model	23%	26%	51%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	26%	51%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.09.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Arosa and Pontevedra expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09Arosa

1.73Pontevedra

Total expected goals: 2.82
Attack rating (Arosa / Pontevedra): 1.00 / 0.89
Defence rating (Arosa / Pontevedra): 1.00 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arosa vs Pontevedra score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 9.2% 9.0% 5.2% 3.3% 1 5.3% 12.3% 9.7% 5.6% 3.6% 2 3.5% 6.1% 5.3% 3.1% 2.0% 3 1.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 4+ 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Arosa goals. Columns: Pontevedra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arosa vs Pontevedra goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arosa vs Pontevedra

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Arosa	23%	4.43
	Draw	26%	3.85
	Pontevedra	51%	1.94
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.87
	Under 2.5	46%	2.15
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.80
	No	44%	2.26
Double chance	1X (Arosa or draw)	49%	2.06
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Pontevedra)	77%	1.29
Handicap -1	Pontevedra win by 2+	29%	3.46
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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