Osasuna vs Racing Santander preview
In the match between Osasuna and Racing Santander, the model gives Osasuna a 48% chance of winning and predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, with this outcome occurring 8% of the time. The model also indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 74%.
Osasuna's expected goals stand at 2.05, while Racing Santander's are at 1.68. However, Osasuna's recent form shows 4 losses in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Racing Santander has a mixed form with 2 wins in their last 5, suggesting they could pose a challenge.
Why this pick: Osasuna vs Racing Santander
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Osasuna 10, Racing Santander 8). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander: model vs market
| Source | Osasuna | Draw | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Edge | 0% | -2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.68.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Osasuna, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.90 | 2.00 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.41 | 3.60 | +0.19 |
| Racing Santander | 4.30 | 3.62 | -0.67 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Osasuna and Racing Santander expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (Osasuna / Racing Santander)
- 0.94 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Osasuna / Racing Santander)
- 1.23 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Osasuna goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Osasuna vs Racing Santander
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Racing Santander | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Osasuna or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Racing Santander) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Osasuna win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Osasuna and Racing Santander recent form
Osasuna
1W 1D 4L
Racing Santander
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Osasuna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Santander away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Osasuna at home only, Racing Santander away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves 2026-10-18
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2026-10-18
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Osasuna, previous: Real Betis vs Osasuna prediction
- Racing Santander, previous: Racing Santander – Valencia, 2026-10-11