Villarreal vs Elche preview
In the upcoming match between Villarreal and Elche, the 1X2 probabilities show Villarreal at 67%, while Elche is at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 3-1, with an 8% chance. Villarreal's expected goals stand at 2.94, significantly higher than Elche's 1.19.
Villarreal's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 losses, while Elche has 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses. The model indicates an 80% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance for both teams to score. Factors like a sudden change in player form or tactical shifts could affect these predictions.
Why this pick: Villarreal vs Elche
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Elche 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Villarreal vs Elche: model vs market
| Source | Villarreal | Draw | Elche |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Edge | +10% | -5% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Villarreal below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.51, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Villarreal vs Elche odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.46 | 1.47 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.83 | 4.62 | -0.21 |
| Elche | 6.04 | 6.28 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Villarreal and Elche expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.13
- Attack rating (Villarreal / Elche)
- 1.55 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Villarreal / Elche)
- 1.11 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Villarreal vs Elche score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Elche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Villarreal vs Elche goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Villarreal vs Elche
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.19 | |
| Elche | 14% | 7.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Villarreal or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Elche) | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win by 2+ | 56% | 1.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Villarreal and Elche recent form
Villarreal
3W 0D 3L
Elche
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Villarreal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Elche away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Villarreal at home only, Elche away only.
Villarreal vs Elche head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Villarreal 2 · draws 0 · Elche 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Villarreal | 2-1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2026-01-03 | Elche | 1-3 | Villarreal | La Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Villarreal, previous: Villarreal – Napoli, 2026-10-13
- Villarreal, next: Liverpool vs Villarreal: odds and pick
- Elche, previous: Elche – Celta Vigo, 2026-10-11
- Elche, next: Pinatar vs Elche prediction