Pinatar vs Elche Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Pinatar vs Elche preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Pinatar and Elche, the 1X2 probabilities show Pinatar at 61% and Elche at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Pinatar's expected goals are 2.25, while Elche's are significantly lower at 1.15.

There is a 66% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score. However, Elche's recent form, which includes 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, could impact their performance negatively. If they improve their form, it could challenge Pinatar's advantage.

Pinatar vs Elche: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Pinatar	Draw	Elche
Model	61%	21%	18%
Market	—	—	—
Published	61%	21%	18%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.15.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 2 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Pinatar and Elche expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.25Pinatar

1.15Elche

Total expected goals: 3.39
Attack rating (Pinatar / Elche): 1.66 / 0.83
Defence rating (Pinatar / Elche): 0.71 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Pinatar vs Elche score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 3.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 1 6.7% 9.5% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 2 8.5% 9.7% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 3 6.3% 7.3% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 6.0% 6.9% 4.0% 1.5% 0.6%

Rows: Pinatar goals. Columns: Elche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Pinatar vs Elche goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 66%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 62%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Pinatar vs Elche

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Pinatar	61%	1.63
	Draw	21%	4.71
	Elche	18%	5.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.52
	Under 2.5	34%	2.93
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	1.62
	No	38%	2.63
Double chance	1X (Pinatar or draw)	82%	1.21
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Elche)	39%	2.58
Handicap -1	Pinatar win by 2+	40%	2.52
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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