Cuarte vs Girona preview
Cuarte faces Girona with a 15% chance of winning compared to Girona's 62%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which has a 12% probability. Cuarte's expected goals stand at 0.84, while Girona's is 1.94.
The match could see Over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 50%. Cuarte's recent form shows a loss, while Girona has two draws and three wins in their last six matches. These factors suggest Girona is favored, but any unexpected performance from Cuarte could change the outcome.
Cuarte vs Girona: model vs market
| Source | Cuarte | Draw | Girona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cuarte and Girona expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Cuarte / Girona)
- 0.94 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Cuarte / Girona)
- 1.14 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cuarte vs Girona score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cuarte goals. Columns: Girona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cuarte vs Girona goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cuarte vs Girona
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuarte | 15% | 6.88 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Girona | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cuarte or draw) | 38% | 2.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Girona) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cuarte and Girona recent form
Cuarte
0W 0D 1L
Girona
3W 2D 1L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Girona, previous: Girona vs FC Andorra: odds and pick