Why this pick: Elche vs Celta Vigo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Elche 10, Celta Vigo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Elche vs Celta Vigo: model vs market
| Source | Elche | Draw | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 35% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Elche vs Celta Vigo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 2.92 | 2.96 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.25 | -0.01 |
| Celta Vigo | 2.52 | 2.50 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Elche and Celta Vigo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Elche / Celta Vigo)
- 0.97 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Elche / Celta Vigo)
- 1.30 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Elche vs Celta Vigo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Elche goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Elche vs Celta Vigo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Elche vs Celta Vigo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Celta Vigo | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Elche or draw) | 65% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Celta Vigo) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta Vigo win by 2+ | 12% | 8.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Elche and Celta Vigo recent form
Elche
1W 1D 4L
Celta Vigo
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Elche at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta Vigo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Elche at home only, Celta Vigo away only.
Injuries & availability
Elche absences
- F. Redondo Solari suspended
-
Y. Santiago
knee injury
Celta Vigo absences
-
A. Antanon
ankle injury
- C. Starfelt injury
-
J. El Abdellaoui
knee injury
-
M. Roman
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Elche lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 M. Dituro
- 3 R. Revivo
- 47 J. Morcillo
- 23 Víctor Chust
- 22 Rubén Sánchez
- 12 Gonzalo Villar
- 8 Marc Aguado
- 18 T. Lemar
- 11 Germán Valera
- 14 Fer Niño
- 20 Tete Morente
Bench: Bigas, E. Ponce, F. Buonanotte, Alejandro Iturbe, K. Lomónaco, Martim Neto, Josan, G. Diangana, L. Cepeda, A. Osorio, Matia Barzic Gutiérrez, Alvaro Padilla
Celta Vigo lineup · 3-4-3
- 13 I. Radu
- 3 Marcos Alonso
- 18 Yoel Lago
- 15 Álvaro Núñez
- 22 Javi Galán
- 14 Aleix Febas
- 6 I. Moriba
- 17 Javi Rueda
- 23 Hugo Álvarez
- 11 Pablo Durán
- 9 Ferran Jutglà
Bench: A. Bayındır, A. Faye, Sergio Carreira, Borja Iglesias, Iago Aspas, Hugo González, W. Swedberg, Javi Rodríguez, S. Cáceres, C. Driouech, Iván Villar, H. Burcio
Elche vs Celta Vigo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Elche 2 · draws 2 · Celta Vigo 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Celta Vigo | 3-1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Elche | 2-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2023-04-26 | Celta Vigo | 1-0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2023-01-06 | Elche | 0-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2022-05-15 | Celta Vigo | 1-0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2021-10-03 | Elche | 1-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2021-02-12 | Celta Vigo | 3-1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2020-11-06 | Elche | 1-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2015-03-02 | Celta Vigo | 1-1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2014-09-26 | Elche | 0-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Malaga vs Espanyol 2026-10-09
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-10
- Barcelona v Getafe — match page 2026-10-10
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2026-10-10
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-10-11
- Real Betis vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Racing Santander v Valencia — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Elche, next: Villarreal v Elche analysis
- Celta Vigo, next: Celta Vigo vs Juventus: odds and pick