Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna preview
In the La Liga fixture between Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna, the key figure is the 52% probability for a Real Sociedad win in the 1X2 market. The expected goals show a close contest, with Real Sociedad at 1.47 and Deportivo La Coruna at 1.45, indicating that a draw is also possible, reflected in the 26% draw probability.
Both teams to score stands at 63%, suggesting both sides could find the net. However, if Deportivo La Coruna's recent form improves, or if Real Sociedad struggles to convert their chances, the match could deviate from the expected outcome. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 58%, which adds another layer of potential excitement to the match.
Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Deportivo La Coruna 7). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market
| Source | Real Sociedad | Draw | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 52% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | -19% | +4% | +14% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 2.08 | 1.67 | -0.41 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.85 | +0.49 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 3.79 | 4.90 | +1.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 0.99 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 1.27 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Sociedad or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna) | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win by 2+ | 20% | 5.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna recent form
Real Sociedad
3W 1D 2L
Deportivo La Coruna
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Sociedad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Deportivo La Coruna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad at home only, Deportivo La Coruna away only.
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