Why this pick: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Madrid 10, Villarreal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: model vs market
| Source | Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 14% |
| Published | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 1.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 67 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 1.25 | 1.37 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 6.83 | 5.75 | -1.08 |
| Villarreal | 9.50 | 7.00 | -2.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Madrid and Villarreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.58
- Attack rating (Real Madrid / Villarreal)
- 1.49 / 1.66
- Defence rating (Real Madrid / Villarreal)
- 0.91 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Madrid vs Villarreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.89 | |
| Villarreal | 15% | 6.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.26 |
| No | 21% | 4.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Madrid or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Villarreal) | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 44% | 2.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Real Madrid and Villarreal recent form
Real Madrid
4W 0D 2L
Villarreal
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Madrid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Villarreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Madrid at home only, Villarreal away only.
Injuries & availability
Real Madrid absences
- D. Huijsen suspended
-
Eder Militao
hamstring injury
-
F. Mendy
hip injury
-
R. Asencio
broken leg
-
Rodrygo
knee injury
Villarreal absences
- T. Buchanan muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Real Madrid lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Courtois
- 18 Álvaro Fernández
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 16 I. Konaté
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 8 F. Valverde
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 15 A. Güler
- 10 Kylian Mbappé
Bench: E. Camavinga, Vinícius Júnior, Endrick, A. Lunin, Marc Cucurella, Carlos Espí, Bernardo Silva, Brahim Díaz, D. Dumfries, Sergio Mestre, Thiago Pitarch
Villarreal lineup · 5-3-2
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 23 Sergi Cardona
- 12 Renato Veiga
- 8 J. Foyth
- 6 Pau Navarro
- 3 A. Freeman
- 10 Alberto Moleiro
- 18 P. Gueye
- 14 Santi Comesaña
- 11 Ilias Akhomach
- 22 Ayoze Pérez
Bench: Luíz Júnior, Logan Costa, A. Diatta, Gerard Moreno, G. Mikautadze, S. Mouriño, C. Macia, Carlos Romero, T. Oluwaseyi, N. El Jmili
Real Madrid vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Real Madrid 6 · draws 2 · Villarreal 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Villarreal | 0-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-10-04 | Real Madrid | 3-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2025-03-15 | Villarreal | 1-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-10-05 | Real Madrid | 2-0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2024-05-19 | Villarreal | 4-4 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-12-17 | Real Madrid | 4-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2023-04-08 | Real Madrid | 2-3 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2023-01-19 | Villarreal | 2-3 | Real Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| 2023-01-07 | Villarreal | 2-1 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2022-02-12 | Villarreal | 0-0 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Malaga vs Espanyol 2026-10-09
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-10
- Barcelona v Getafe — match page 2026-10-10
- Elche vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-11
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-10-11
- Real Betis vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Racing Santander v Valencia — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Real Madrid, next: Roma – Real Madrid, 2026-10-14
- Villarreal, next: Villarreal – Napoli, 2026-10-13