Updated

La Liga · Matchday 8

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

· Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz· Referee Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Atletico Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AlavesDrawAtletico Madrid

Why this pick: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Alaves 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AlavesAtletico Madrid
1.46 xG per 90 2.00
1.46 npxG per 90 1.83
12.9 PPDA 10.7
3.6 Deep completions per 90 11.3
1.70 xPTS per 90 1.70

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlavesDrawAtletico Madrid
Model43%28%28%
Market22%25%53%
Published27%26%47%
Edge+5%+1%-6%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 67 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.98Now 1.80 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Alaves3.744.37+0.62
Draw3.573.78+0.21
Atletico Madrid1.981.80-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Alaves and Atletico Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.58Alaves
1.31Atletico Madrid
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Alaves / Atletico Madrid)
1.02 / 1.32
Defence rating (Alaves / Atletico Madrid)
0.86 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 4.5% 4.4% 1.9% 0.8% 1 6.2% 13.4% 7.3% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.3% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2% 3 3.9% 5.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 2.4% 3.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Alaves27%3.67
Draw26%3.84
Atletico Madrid47%2.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.34
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.63
No38%2.60
Double chance1X (Alaves or draw)53%1.88
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid)73%1.37
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win by 2+13%7.62
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Alaves and Atletico Madrid recent form

Alaves 2W 2D 2L
Atletico Madrid 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Alaves at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Madrid away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Alaves at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

Alaves absences

  • F. Garces suspended
  • M. Rodriguez ankle injury

Atletico Madrid absences

  • O. Vargas inactive
  • R. Mendoza inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Alaves lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Sivera
  2. 17 Jonny
  3. 2 N. Valentini
  4. 14 N. Tenaglia
  5. 21 A. Rebbach
  6. 19 Pablo Ibáñez
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco
  8. 4 Denis Suárez
  9. 7 Angel Pérez
  10. 15 L. Boyé
  11. 11 Toni Martínez

Bench: Yusi, Guevara, M. Díaz, Carles Aleñá, Hugo Novoa, A. Giménez, V. Koski, Aitor Mañas, Miguel Rodríguez, C. Benavídez, Selu Diallo, X. Olaiz

Atletico Madrid lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 J. Oblak
  2. 22 Álex Grimaldo
  3. 24 Robin Le Normand
  4. 21 C. Romero
  5. 14 Marcos Llorente
  6. 5 J. Cardoso
  7. 6 Koke
  8. 11 A. Lookman
  9. 8 Pablo Barrios
  10. 20 G. Simeone
  11. 15 J. David

Bench: J. Musso, Lee Kang-In, A. Sørloth, Álex Baena, Arnau Ortiz, D. Hancko, Marc Pubill, J. Álvarez, M. Hjulmand, J. Dominguez, Dani Martínez, J. Castillo

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Alaves 2 · draws 2 · Atletico Madrid 6.

AlavesDrawsAtletico Madrid
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-18Atletico Madrid1-0AlavesLa Liga
2025-08-30Alaves1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2025-05-03Alaves0-0Atletico MadridLa Liga
2024-11-23Atletico Madrid2-1AlavesLa Liga
2024-04-21Alaves2-0Atletico MadridLa Liga
2023-10-29Atletico Madrid2-1AlavesLa Liga
2022-04-02Atletico Madrid4-1AlavesLa Liga
2021-09-25Alaves1-0Atletico MadridLa Liga
2021-03-21Atletico Madrid1-0AlavesLa Liga
2021-01-03Alaves1-2Atletico MadridLa Liga

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match