Why this pick: Barcelona vs Getafe
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Barcelona 10, Getafe 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Barcelona vs Getafe: model vs market
| Source | Barcelona | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| Market | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Published | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.43 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Barcelona vs Getafe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 67 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1.05 | 1.10 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 16.41 | 11.00 | -5.41 |
| Getafe | 34.00 | 23.81 | -10.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barcelona and Getafe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.26
- Attack rating (Barcelona / Getafe)
- 2.18 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Barcelona / Getafe)
- 0.87 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barcelona vs Getafe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Getafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barcelona vs Getafe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barcelona vs Getafe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 87% | 1.15 |
| Draw | 9% | 11.11 | |
| Getafe | 4% | 25.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barcelona or draw) | 96% | 1.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| X2 (draw or Getafe) | 13% | 7.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win by 2+ | 72% | 1.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Barcelona and Getafe recent form
Barcelona
6W 0D 0L
Getafe
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barcelona at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 4.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Getafe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barcelona at home only, Getafe away only.
Injuries & availability
Barcelona absences
- A. Christensen muscle injury
-
F. de Jong
knee injury
-
R. Bardghji
knee injury
-
Raphinha
muscle injury
Getafe absences
-
C. Uche
knee injury
-
Juanmi
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Barcelona lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 Joan García
- 12 X. Espart
- 18 Gerard Martín
- 24 Eric García
- 23 J. Koundé
- 20 Dani Olmo
- 16 Rodri
- 6 Gavi
- 17 A. Gordon
- 9 Gabriel Jesus
- 10 Lamine Yamal
Bench: João Cancelo, Alejandro Balde, B. Farinas, Pau Cubarsí Paredes, Fermín, Pedri, W. Szczęsny, K. Adeyemi, Marc Bernal, D. Livaković, H. Abdelkarim
Getafe lineup · 5-4-1
- 13 David Soria
- 22 J. Mojica
- 24 Z. Romero
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 2 D. Dakonam
- 17 Kiko Femenía
- 11 Ramón Terrats
- 6 Mario Martín
- 16 Francho Serrano
- 21 Andrés García
- 20 Iván Azón
Bench: J. Letáček, Davinchi, S. Sazonov, A. Abqar, Borja Mayoral, M. Satriano, S. Boselli, J. Valou, Alberto Risco, Diego Ferrer
Barcelona vs Getafe head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Barcelona 6 · draws 4 · Getafe 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Getafe | 0-2 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2025-09-21 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2025-01-18 | Getafe | 1-1 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2024-09-25 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-02-24 | Barcelona | 4-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2023-08-13 | Getafe | 0-0 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2023-04-16 | Getafe | 0-0 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2023-01-22 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2022-05-15 | Getafe | 0-0 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2021-08-29 | Barcelona | 2-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Malaga vs Espanyol 2026-10-09
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-10
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2026-10-10
- Elche vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-11
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-10-11
- Real Betis vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Racing Santander v Valencia — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Barcelona, next: Galatasaray v Barcelona analysis
- Getafe, next: Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe: odds and pick