Why this pick: Real Betis vs Osasuna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Betis 10, Osasuna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Betis vs Osasuna: model vs market
| Source | Real Betis | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Published | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Real Betis vs Osasuna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Betis, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 1.57 | 1.50 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 4.29 | 4.59 | +0.29 |
| Osasuna | 5.62 | 6.30 | +0.67 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Betis and Osasuna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Real Betis / Osasuna)
- 1.31 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Real Betis / Osasuna)
- 1.21 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Betis vs Osasuna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Betis goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Betis vs Osasuna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Betis vs Osasuna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Betis | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Osasuna | 16% | 6.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Betis or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Osasuna) | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Betis win by 2+ | 42% | 2.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Real Betis and Osasuna recent form
Real Betis
4W 1D 1L
Osasuna
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Betis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Osasuna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Betis at home only, Osasuna away only.
Injuries & availability
Real Betis absences
-
A. Ruibal
knee injury
-
I. Losada
inactive
- J. Firpo groin injury
Osasuna absences
- A. Bonel inactive
-
A. Oroz
injury
-
J. Herrando
muscle injury
- K. Barja muscle injury
- R. Del Castillo muscle injury
- R. Moro muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Real Betis lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Álvaro Vallés
- 11 Fran García
- 4 Natan
- 3 Diego Llorente
- 2 Héctor Bellerín
- 21 Marc Roca
- 8 Pablo Fornals
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 22 Isco
- 17 Rodrigo Riquelme
- 9 C. Hernández
Bench: Marc Bartra, F. Bernal, Antony, Ángel Ortiz, Diego Conde, Álvaro Fidalgo, V. Gómez, N. Deossa, T. Parrott, G. Lo Celso, Dani Ceballos, J. A. Morante
Osasuna lineup · 4-4-2
- 13 Aitor Fernández
- 23 Abel Bretones
- 35 U. Santos
- 24 Catena
- 27 Íñigo Arguibide
- 16 Moi Gómez
- 6 Lucas Torró
- 7 Moncayola
- 14 Rubén García
- 17 A. Budimir
- 9 Raúl García
Bench: Sergio Herrera, Iker Muñoz, Diego Rico, V. Rosier, Jonathan Dubasin, F. Boyomo, Mauro Echegoyen, Asier Osambela, R. Yeboah
Real Betis vs Osasuna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Real Betis 6 · draws 3 · Osasuna 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Osasuna | 1-1 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Real Betis | 2-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2025-05-11 | Real Betis | 1-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2024-10-19 | Osasuna | 1-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2024-05-05 | Osasuna | 0-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2023-10-29 | Real Betis | 2-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2023-04-22 | Osasuna | 3-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2023-01-18 | Real Betis | 2-2 | Osasuna | Copa del Rey |
| 2022-08-26 | Real Betis | 1-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2022-04-03 | Real Betis | 4-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Malaga vs Espanyol 2026-10-09
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-10
- Barcelona v Getafe — match page 2026-10-10
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2026-10-10
- Elche vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-11
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-10-11
- Racing Santander v Valencia — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Real Betis, next: Real Betis v FC Porto analysis
- Osasuna, next: Osasuna vs Racing Santander: odds and pick