Real Betis vs Osasuna preview
In the La Liga fixture between Real Betis and Osasuna, the key number is the 60% probability for a Real Betis win in the 1X2 market. The expected goals show Real Betis at 2.40 and Osasuna at 1.34, suggesting a strong attacking performance from Betis.
However, the match could deviate from the prediction if Osasuna manages to score, as both teams to score has a 69% likelihood. Recent form also indicates that while Real Betis has won four of their last five matches, Osasuna's mixed results, including two consecutive losses, could influence the outcome.
Why this pick: Real Betis vs Osasuna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Betis 10, Osasuna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Betis vs Osasuna: model vs market
| Source | Real Betis | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Real Betis below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Betis vs Osasuna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Betis, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 1.57 | 1.60 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.29 | 4.10 | -0.20 |
| Osasuna | 5.62 | 5.30 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Betis and Osasuna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (Real Betis / Osasuna)
- 1.31 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Real Betis / Osasuna)
- 1.20 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Betis vs Osasuna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Betis goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Betis vs Osasuna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Betis vs Osasuna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Betis | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Osasuna | 18% | 5.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Betis or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Osasuna) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Betis win by 2+ | 42% | 2.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Betis and Osasuna recent form
Real Betis
4W 1D 1L
Osasuna
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Betis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Osasuna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Betis at home only, Osasuna away only.
Real Betis vs Osasuna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Real Betis 4 · draws 2 · Osasuna 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Osasuna | 1-1 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Real Betis | 2-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2025-05-11 | Real Betis | 1-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2024-10-19 | Osasuna | 1-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2024-05-05 | Osasuna | 0-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2023-10-29 | Real Betis | 2-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
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