Racing Santander vs Valencia preview
Racing Santander hosts Valencia with a 48% probability of winning, compared to Valencia's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the high expectation of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 69%. Racing Santander's expected goals stand at 2.40, while Valencia's is significantly lower at 1.35.
However, recent form shows Racing Santander with two wins in their last six matches, while Valencia has lost five of their last six. This poor form could lead to an unexpected result, potentially affecting the probabilities. If Valencia finds a way to improve their performance, it could challenge the expected outcome.
Why this pick: Racing Santander vs Valencia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Racing Santander 7, Valencia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Racing Santander vs Valencia: model vs market
| Source | Racing Santander | Draw | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | +19% | -6% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Racing Santander below the model: +18.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Racing Santander vs Valencia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Racing Santander, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 1.83 | 2.20 | +0.37 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.55 | -0.17 |
| Valencia | 4.30 | 3.10 | -1.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Racing Santander and Valencia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.75
- Attack rating (Racing Santander / Valencia)
- 1.26 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Racing Santander / Valencia)
- 1.36 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Racing Santander vs Valencia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Racing Santander goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Racing Santander vs Valencia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Racing Santander vs Valencia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Santander | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Valencia | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Racing Santander or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Valencia) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Santander win by 2+ | 42% | 2.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Racing Santander and Valencia recent form
Racing Santander
2W 0D 4L
Valencia
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Racing Santander at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Valencia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Santander at home only, Valencia away only.
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