Why this pick: Racing Santander vs Valencia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Racing Santander 7, Valencia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Racing Santander vs Valencia: model vs market
| Source | Racing Santander | Draw | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Racing Santander below our published probability: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Racing Santander vs Valencia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Racing Santander, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 1.83 | 2.25 | +0.41 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.50 | -0.22 |
| Valencia | 4.30 | 3.17 | -1.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Racing Santander and Valencia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.75
- Attack rating (Racing Santander / Valencia)
- 1.26 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Racing Santander / Valencia)
- 1.36 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Racing Santander vs Valencia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Racing Santander goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Racing Santander vs Valencia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Racing Santander vs Valencia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Santander | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Valencia | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Racing Santander or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Valencia) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Santander win by 2+ | 42% | 2.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Racing Santander and Valencia recent form
Racing Santander
2W 0D 4L
Valencia
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Racing Santander at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Valencia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Santander at home only, Valencia away only.
Injuries & availability
Racing Santander absences
-
S. Eriksson
shoulder injury
Valencia absences
-
D. Foulquier
injury
-
D. Lopez
knee injury
-
L. Rioja
heel injury
-
S. Canos
knee injury
-
U. Sadiq
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Racing Santander lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 13 Julen Agirrezabala
- 17 Jorge Salinas
- 24 J. Belocian
- 5 Pablo Ramón
- 2 Álvaro Mantilla
- 18 M. Prati
- 23 Iván Martín
- 10 Iñigo Vicente
- 8 André Almeida
- 20 Sergio Canales
- 21 M. Zabiri
Bench: Aarón Martín, Manu Hernando, Íñigo Sainz-Maza, G. Guliashvili, Juan Carlos Arana, Andrés Martín, Asier Villalibre, M. Gueye, Pablo García, Facundo González, Iker Luque, Laro Gómez
Valencia lineup · 4-5-1
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 14 José Gayà
- 12 J. de Haas
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 24 Pablo Maffeo
- 19 Dani Raba
- 18 Pepelu
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 8 Javi Guerra
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 9 Hugo Duro
Bench: César Tárrega, A. Danjuma, H. Elliott, A. Dieng, Jesús Vázquez, Arnau Martínez, K. van Oevelen, David Otorbi, Aaron Mayol, Iker Córdoba, Aimar Blázquez, R. Sato
Racing Santander vs Valencia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Racing Santander 0 · draws 2 · Valencia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-01-29 | Racing Santander | 2-2 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2011-08-27 | Valencia | 4-3 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 2011-01-31 | Racing Santander | 1-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2010-09-11 | Valencia | 1-0 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Malaga vs Espanyol 2026-10-09
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-10
- Barcelona v Getafe — match page 2026-10-10
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2026-10-10
- Elche vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-11
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-10-11
- Real Betis vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Racing Santander, next: Osasuna vs Racing Santander: odds and pick
- Valencia, next: Valencia vs Athletic Club: odds and pick