Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe preview

In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between Universitatea Craiova and Getafe, the 1X2 probabilities show Universitatea Craiova at 71%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 (14%). The expected goals for Universitatea Craiova are 2.09, while Getafe's expected goals stand at just 0.63.

While the model suggests a strong performance from Universitatea Craiova, factors like Getafe's recent form, which includes 3 losses in their last 5 matches, could lead to an unexpected outcome. Additionally, the chances of Over 2.5 goals are at 51%, and both teams to score is at 42%, indicating potential for surprises in the match.

Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Universitatea Craiova	Draw	Getafe
Model	71%	20%	9%
Market	30%	29%	41%
Published	40%	27%	33%
Edge	+40%	-9%	-32%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.63.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Universitatea Craiova below the model: +40.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.25, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Universitatea Craiova, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 3.00Now 3.12 +0.12

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Universitatea Craiova	3.00	3.12	+0.12
Draw	3.22	3.24	+0.02
Getafe	2.32	2.30	-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Universitatea Craiova and Getafe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09Universitatea Craiova

0.63Getafe

Total expected goals: 2.72
Attack rating (Universitatea Craiova / Getafe): 1.31 / 0.80
Defence rating (Universitatea Craiova / Getafe): 0.66 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 3.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1 12.9% 9.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.3% 9.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 3 10.0% 6.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 8.5% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Universitatea Craiova goals. Columns: Getafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Universitatea Craiova	40%	2.49
	Draw	27%	3.72
	Getafe	33%	3.04
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95
	Under 2.5	49%	2.05
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.38
	No	58%	1.72
Double chance	1X (Universitatea Craiova or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Getafe)	60%	1.67
Handicap -1	Universitatea Craiova win by 2+	46%	2.16
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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