Updated

Liga I · Matchday 11

Csikszereda vs Universitatea Craiova

· Stadionul Municipal, Sfântu Gheorghe· Referee Moroita·Andrei

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Universitatea Craiova to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 2

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CsikszeredaDrawUniversitatea Craiova

Csikszereda vs Universitatea Craiova: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCsikszeredaDrawUniversitatea Craiova
Model10%20%70%
Market11%18%71%
Published10%19%71%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 0.73.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Csikszereda vs Universitatea Craiova odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Universitatea Craiova, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.55Now 1.29 -0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Csikszereda5.538.72+3.19
Draw4.005.00+1.00
Universitatea Craiova1.551.29-0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Csikszereda and Universitatea Craiova expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.73Csikszereda
2.19Universitatea Craiova
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Csikszereda / Universitatea Craiova)
0.68 / 1.42
Defence rating (Csikszereda / Universitatea Craiova)
1.46 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Csikszereda vs Universitatea Craiova score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 10.9% 12.9% 9.4% 8.6% 1 3.1% 9.5% 9.4% 6.9% 6.3% 2 1.4% 3.2% 3.5% 2.5% 2.3% 3 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Csikszereda goals. Columns: Universitatea Craiova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Csikszereda vs Universitatea Craiova goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Csikszereda vs Universitatea Craiova

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Csikszereda10%9.58
Draw19%5.34
Universitatea Craiova71%1.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.13
No53%1.89
Double chance1X (Csikszereda or draw)29%3.43
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or Universitatea Craiova)90%1.12
Handicap -1Universitatea Craiova win by 2+47%2.14
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Csikszereda and Universitatea Craiova recent form

Csikszereda 0W 1D 5L
Universitatea Craiova 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Csikszereda at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universitatea Craiova away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Csikszereda at home only, Universitatea Craiova away only.

Expected lineups

Csikszereda lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 94 E. Pap
  2. 6 L. Pászka
  3. 3 R. Palmeş
  4. 24 J. Hegedűs
  5. 22 M. Ódor
  6. 13 A. Csürös
  7. 8 S. Vereș
  8. 77 A. Stahl
  9. 90 S. Nyitra
  10. 27 M. Eppel

Bench: A. Szabó, N. Kukovec, A. Horváth, L. Novelli, Á. Czékus, Z. Magyar, M. Karácsony, D. Bota, S. Szalay

Universitatea Craiova lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 21 L. Popescu
  2. 6 V. Screciu
  3. 24 N. Stevanović
  4. 3 O. Romanchuk
  5. 11 N. Bancu
  6. 20 A. Cicâldău
  7. 8 T. Băluță
  8. 17 C. Mora
  9. 10 Ș. Baiaram
  10. 9 A. Al Hamlawi
  11. 30 D. Matei

Bench: A. Maxim, A. Crețu, B. Roux, S. Nsimba, João Lameira, M. Rădulescu, Heriberto Tavares, S. Elisor, L. Băsceanu, R. Webster, R. Sava

Csikszereda vs Universitatea Craiova head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Csikszereda 0 · draws 0 · Universitatea Craiova 3.

CsikszeredaDrawsUniversitatea Craiova
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-22Universitatea Craiova5-0CsikszeredaLiga I
2025-08-17Csikszereda1-2Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
2019-02-28Csikszereda0-3Universitatea CraiovaCupa României

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match