Updated

Liga I · Matchday 11

FC Botosani vs Uta Arad

· Stadionul Municipal, Sfântu Gheorghe· Referee Szabolcs Kovacs

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was FC Botosani to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC BotosaniDrawUta Arad

FC Botosani vs Uta Arad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC BotosaniDrawUta Arad
Model45%27%28%
Market39%27%34%
Published41%27%32%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.19.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Botosani vs Uta Arad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Botosani, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 2.10Now 2.35 +0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Botosani2.102.35+0.25
Draw3.203.38+0.17
Uta Arad3.522.75-0.77

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Botosani and Uta Arad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.57FC Botosani
1.19Uta Arad
Total expected goals
2.76
Attack rating (FC Botosani / Uta Arad)
1.08 / 1.09
Defence rating (FC Botosani / Uta Arad)
1.03 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Botosani vs Uta Arad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 6.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1 8.8% 13.0% 7.0% 2.8% 1.1% 2 7.8% 9.3% 5.5% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.1% 4.9% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: FC Botosani goals. Columns: Uta Arad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Botosani vs Uta Arad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Botosani vs Uta Arad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Botosani41%2.46
Draw27%3.66
Uta Arad32%3.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (FC Botosani or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Uta Arad)59%1.69
Handicap -1FC Botosani win by 2+24%4.24
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Botosani and Uta Arad recent form

FC Botosani 2W 2D 2L
Uta Arad 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Botosani at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Uta Arad away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Botosani at home only, Uta Arad away only.

Expected lineups

FC Botosani lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 99 G. Anestis
  2. 73 N. Ilaș
  3. 23 D. Diaw
  4. 4 A. Miron
  5. 2 B. Bayeye
  6. 26 H. Ongenda
  7. 67 E. Papa
  8. 21 Lucas de Vega
  9. 7 S. Mailat
  10. 41 A. Dumiter
  11. 11 Z. Mitrov

Bench: C. Petro, R. Idowu, J. Marković, Ș. Bodișteanu, M. Kovtalyuk, A. Suchianu, Ionuț Cristian Gurău, A. Țigănașu, M. Bordeianu, R. Sadiku, Gama Gabriel, Mario Preda

Uta Arad lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Márcio Rosa
  2. 3 S. Alomeroviс
  3. 22 R. Bădescu
  4. 4 A. Benga
  5. 14 S. Gueulette
  6. 6 A. Ivanov
  7. 5 S. Mino
  8. 11 H. Abdallah
  9. 8 A. Roman
  10. 20 Denis Taroi
  11. 9 M. Coman

Bench: Ismet Sinani, M. Tzionis, A. Gorcea, O. El Sawy, D. Pospelov, J. Papeau

FC Botosani vs Uta Arad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Botosani 3 · draws 2 · Uta Arad 5.

FC BotosaniDrawsUta Arad
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Uta Arad3-1FC BotosaniLiga I
2026-02-15Uta Arad2-1FC BotosaniLiga I
2025-10-06FC Botosani2-1Uta AradLiga I
2025-04-05Uta Arad1-0FC BotosaniLiga I
2024-12-23Uta Arad2-0FC BotosaniLiga I
2024-08-17FC Botosani1-0Uta AradLiga I
2024-04-05Uta Arad1-0FC BotosaniLiga I
2024-02-12Uta Arad2-2FC BotosaniLiga I
2023-09-23FC Botosani2-2Uta AradLiga I
2023-04-14Uta Arad0-2FC BotosaniLiga I

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match