FC Botosani vs Uta Arad: model vs market
| Source | FC Botosani | Draw | Uta Arad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.18.
- The market prices FC Botosani below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Botosani vs Uta Arad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Botosani, 37 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botosani | 2.10 | 2.25 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.40 | +0.20 |
| Uta Arad | 3.52 | 2.80 | -0.72 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Botosani and Uta Arad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (FC Botosani / Uta Arad)
- 1.08 / 1.09
- Defence rating (FC Botosani / Uta Arad)
- 1.03 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Botosani vs Uta Arad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Botosani goals. Columns: Uta Arad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Botosani vs Uta Arad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Botosani vs Uta Arad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Botosani | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Uta Arad | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Botosani or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Uta Arad) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Botosani win by 2+ | 24% | 4.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Botosani and Uta Arad recent form
FC Botosani
2W 2D 2L
Uta Arad
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Botosani at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Uta Arad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Botosani at home only, Uta Arad away only.
FC Botosani vs Uta Arad head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FC Botosani 1 · draws 0 · Uta Arad 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Uta Arad | 3-1 | FC Botosani | Liga I |
| 2026-02-15 | Uta Arad | 2-1 | FC Botosani | Liga I |
| 2025-10-06 | FC Botosani | 2-1 | Uta Arad | Liga I |
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