Updated

Liga I · Matchday 11

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti

· Stadionul Municipal, Sfântu Gheorghe· Referee Viorel Nicusor Flueran

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Dinamo Bucuresti to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheDrawDinamo Bucuresti

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheDrawDinamo Bucuresti
Model19%29%53%
Market17%23%60%
Published17%24%58%
Edge+1%+1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.80.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Dinamo Bucuresti expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.80Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.49Dinamo Bucuresti
Total expected goals
2.29
Attack rating (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe / Dinamo Bucuresti)
0.75 / 1.51
Defence rating (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe / Dinamo Bucuresti)
0.94 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.3% 13.9% 11.3% 5.6% 2.9% 1 6.9% 13.3% 9.0% 4.5% 2.3% 2 3.2% 4.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.9% 3 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals. Columns: Dinamo Bucuresti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe17%5.85
Draw24%4.08
Dinamo Bucuresti58%1.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.48
Under 2.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.28
No56%1.78
Double chance1X (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw)42%2.41
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Dinamo Bucuresti)83%1.21
Handicap -1Dinamo Bucuresti win by 2+28%3.62
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Dinamo Bucuresti recent form

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2W 2D 2L
Dinamo Bucuresti 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

Dinamo Bucuresti away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home only, Dinamo Bucuresti away only.

Expected lineups

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 91 D. Lazar
  2. 3 Fábio Vianna
  3. 31 L. Rose
  4. 82 D. Vîrtej
  5. 2 Cascardo
  6. 7 R. Silaghi
  7. 6 N. Păun
  8. 28 V. Daguin
  9. 23 Hunor Batzula
  10. 14 M. Mawa
  11. 17 D. Andrei

Bench: S. Karamoko, A. Keita, B. Cmiljanić, D. Oberlin, G. Ghimfuș, A. Dobrosavlevici, B. Oteliță, Raul Cîmpean, S. Gyenge, A. Aganović, C. Davordzie

Dinamo Bucuresti lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 36 A. Bellaarouch
  2. 31 R. Opruț
  3. 15 N. Stoioanov
  4. 44 Martín Pascual
  5. 20 D. Irimia
  6. 10 C. Cîrjan
  7. 90 A. Mărginean
  8. 29 Alberto Soro
  9. 77 D. Armstrong
  10. 9 M. Karamoko
  11. 97 D. Zandbergen

Bench: Imran Fetai, M. Verreth, Diogo Pinto, O. Hintsa, R. Radu, Cristian Petrișor Mihai, Darío Benavides, I. Tarba, A. Mazilu, M. Duțu, S. Opriș, A. Roșca

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 6 · draws 4 · Dinamo Bucuresti 0.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheDrawsDinamo Bucuresti
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-11-30Dinamo Bucuresti1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
2024-07-27Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1-1Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
2023-12-04Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe2-1Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
2023-07-31Dinamo Bucuresti0-3Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
2022-11-08Dinamo Bucuresti2-3Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheCupa României
2022-03-20Dinamo Bucuresti0-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
2022-03-01Dinamo Bucuresti1-3Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
2021-10-31Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe4-1Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
2021-02-13Dinamo Bucuresti0-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
2020-10-24Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe2-0Dinamo BucurestiLiga I

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match