Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti preview
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe faces Dinamo Bucuresti in Liga I, with the market showing a 52% chance for a Dinamo win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Dinamo's stronger expected goals at 1.49 compared to Sepsi's 0.80.
Sepsi has had mixed recent form, with two wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Dinamo is on a strong run, winning five of their last six. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 40%, and both teams to score is at 44%. If Sepsi can improve their scoring, it could challenge the expected outcome.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti: model vs market
| Source | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Draw | Dinamo Bucuresti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 29% | 52% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 19% | 29% | 52% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Dinamo Bucuresti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe / Dinamo Bucuresti)
- 0.76 / 1.51
- Defence rating (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe / Dinamo Bucuresti)
- 0.94 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals. Columns: Dinamo Bucuresti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 19% | 5.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Dinamo Bucuresti | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw) | 48% | 2.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Dinamo Bucuresti) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dinamo Bucuresti win by 2+ | 28% | 3.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Dinamo Bucuresti recent form
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
2W 2D 2L
Dinamo Bucuresti
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Dinamo Bucuresti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home only, Dinamo Bucuresti away only.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 6 · draws 4 · Dinamo Bucuresti 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-30 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 1-1 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Liga I |
| 2024-07-27 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 1-1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | Liga I |
| 2023-12-04 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 2-1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | Liga I |
| 2023-07-31 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 0-3 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Liga I |
| 2022-11-08 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 2-3 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Cupa României |
| 2022-03-20 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 0-0 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Liga I |
| 2022-03-01 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 1-3 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Liga I |
| 2021-10-31 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 4-1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | Liga I |
| 2021-02-13 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 0-0 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Liga I |
| 2020-10-24 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 2-0 | Dinamo Bucuresti | Liga I |
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