Updated

Liga I · Matchday 11

FCSB vs Oţelul

· Arena Națională, Bucharest· Referee George Catalin Roman

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was FCSB to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FCSBDrawOţelul

FCSB vs Oţelul: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFCSBDrawOţelul
Model40%24%36%
Market64%21%15%
Published58%22%20%
Edge-6%+1%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FCSB vs Oţelul odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FCSB, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.56Now 1.44 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FCSB1.561.44-0.12
Draw3.904.38+0.48
Oţelul5.716.00+0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FCSB and Oţelul expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78FCSB
1.68Oţelul
Total expected goals
3.45
Attack rating (FCSB / Oţelul)
1.00 / 1.02
Defence rating (FCSB / Oţelul)
1.55 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FCSB vs Oţelul score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 2.5% 1.5% 1 4.7% 10.4% 7.9% 4.4% 2.7% 2 5.0% 8.4% 7.0% 3.9% 2.4% 3 3.0% 5.0% 4.2% 2.3% 1.4% 4+ 2.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.5% 0.9%

Rows: FCSB goals. Columns: Oţelul goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FCSB vs Oţelul goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FCSB vs Oţelul

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FCSB58%1.73
Draw22%4.59
Oţelul20%4.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.49
Under 2.533%3.04
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.46
No31%3.18
Double chance1X (FCSB or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Oţelul)42%2.37
Handicap -1FCSB win by 2+22%4.65
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FCSB and Oţelul recent form

FCSB 1W 1D 4L
Oţelul 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FCSB at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Oţelul away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FCSB at home only, Oţelul away only.

Expected lineups

FCSB lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 Ș. Târnovanu
  2. 4 Ricardo Padurariu
  3. 3 André Duarte
  4. 5 J. Dawa
  5. 2 V. Crețu
  6. 15 O. Arad
  7. 73 K. Muhar
  8. 7 M. Korenica
  9. 31 J. Cisotti
  10. 11 D. Miculescu
  11. 14 A. Garita

Bench: E. Gnahoré, M. Popa, João Paulo, D. Avram, D. Politic, D. Batubinsika, M. Toma, R. Radunović, L. Stancu, A. Stoian

Oţelul lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 C. Dur-Bozoancă
  2. 28 Miguel Silva
  3. 6 P. Iacob
  4. 3 G. Christopoulos
  5. 5 H. Sylla
  6. 27 Pedro Nuno
  7. 8 Rafael Brito
  8. 17 A. Ciobanu
  9. 9 Patrick
  10. 11 Zé Turbo
  11. 24 D. Bordun

Bench: Paulino Joao, M. Contra, Mehmet Titiz, D. Neicu, D. Aftene, R. Olteanu, M. Frunză, D. Zator, A. Balanica

FCSB vs Oţelul head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FCSB 6 · draws 2 · Oţelul 2.

FCSBDrawsOţelul
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11FCSB4-0OţelulLiga I
2026-02-08Oţelul1-4FCSBLiga I
2025-09-28FCSB1-0OţelulLiga I
2024-12-02Oţelul1-4FCSBLiga I
2024-07-26FCSB0-2OţelulLiga I
2023-12-03FCSB0-2OţelulLiga I
2023-10-31Oţelul1-1FCSBCupa României
2023-07-29Oţelul0-2FCSBLiga I
2022-11-10Oţelul0-0FCSBCupa României
2022-07-09Oţelul0-1FCSBFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match