FCSB vs Oţelul: model vs market
| Source | FCSB | Draw | Oţelul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | -21% | +3% | +18% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FCSB vs Oţelul odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FCSB, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB | 1.56 | 1.50 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.20 | +0.30 |
| Oţelul | 5.71 | 5.30 | -0.41 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FCSB and Oţelul expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (FCSB / Oţelul)
- 1.00 / 1.03
- Defence rating (FCSB / Oţelul)
- 1.55 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FCSB vs Oţelul score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FCSB goals. Columns: Oţelul goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FCSB vs Oţelul goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FCSB vs Oţelul
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FCSB | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Oţelul | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FCSB or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Oţelul) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | FCSB win by 2+ | 22% | 4.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FCSB and Oţelul recent form
FCSB
1W 1D 4L
Oţelul
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FCSB at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oţelul away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FCSB at home only, Oţelul away only.
FCSB vs Oţelul head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FCSB 3 · draws 0 · Oţelul 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | FCSB | 4-0 | Oţelul | Liga I |
| 2026-02-08 | Oţelul | 1-4 | FCSB | Liga I |
| 2025-09-28 | FCSB | 1-0 | Oţelul | Liga I |
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