Updated

Liga I · Matchday 11

Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti

· Stadionul Viitorul, Ovidiu· Referee Horatiu Fesnic

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Farul Constanta to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Farul ConstantaDrawPetrolul Ploiesti

Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFarul ConstantaDrawPetrolul Ploiesti
Model44%26%30%
Market49%26%25%
Published48%26%26%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.31.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Farul Constanta, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 2.31Now 1.89 -0.43
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Farul Constanta2.311.89-0.43
Draw3.153.52+0.38
Petrolul Ploiesti3.073.67+0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Farul Constanta and Petrolul Ploiesti expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Farul Constanta
1.31Petrolul Ploiesti
Total expected goals
2.95
Attack rating (Farul Constanta / Petrolul Ploiesti)
1.04 / 1.07
Defence rating (Farul Constanta / Petrolul Ploiesti)
1.16 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 5.7% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 1 7.4% 12.4% 7.4% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.2% 6.0% 2.6% 1.2% 3 3.8% 5.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 2.3% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Farul Constanta goals. Columns: Petrolul Ploiesti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Farul Constanta48%2.10
Draw26%3.82
Petrolul Ploiesti26%3.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.77
Under 2.543%2.30
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.50
Double chance1X (Farul Constanta or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Petrolul Ploiesti)52%1.91
Handicap -1Farul Constanta win by 2+23%4.28
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Farul Constanta and Petrolul Ploiesti recent form

Farul Constanta 1W 4D 1L
Petrolul Ploiesti 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Farul Constanta at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Petrolul Ploiesti away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Farul Constanta at home only, Petrolul Ploiesti away only.

Expected lineups

Farul Constanta lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 12 R. Munteanu
  2. 6 V. Dican
  3. 17 I. Larie
  4. 24 S. Bouzamoucha
  5. 11 C. Ganea
  6. 70 M. Ahlinvi
  7. 23 T. Njiké
  8. 8 I. Vînă
  9. 20 E. Rădăslăvescu
  10. 9 M. Hyseni
  11. 10 E. Sylvestre

Bench: A. Buzbuchi, D. Maftei, V. Țicu, A. Goncear, N. Grigoryan, R. Tănasă, N. Popescu, Răzvan Marincean

Petrolul Ploiesti lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 38 L. Zima
  2. 2 A. Dumitrescu
  3. 71 B. Malula
  4. 4 P. Papp
  5. 22 M. Țuțu
  6. 7 Rodrigo Martins
  7. 20 S. Hanca
  8. 8 L. Vega
  9. 19 Léo Teixeira
  10. 10 A. Bran
  11. 9 D. Nlundulu

Bench: Ș. Georgescu, C. Hüseynov, David Ionut, Adam Zaian, M. Costache, K. Ludewig, R. Leescu, T. Căpușă, M. Ioniță, O. Dele

Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Farul Constanta 8 · draws 1 · Petrolul Ploiesti 1.

Farul ConstantaDrawsPetrolul Ploiesti
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Farul Constanta2-0Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
2026-01-25Petrolul Ploiesti0-1Farul ConstantaLiga I
2025-09-01Farul Constanta2-1Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
2025-04-28Petrolul Ploiesti0-1Farul ConstantaLiga I
2025-02-03Farul Constanta2-1Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
2024-09-14Petrolul Ploiesti1-1Farul ConstantaLiga I
2023-12-10Farul Constanta3-1Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
2023-08-06Petrolul Ploiesti3-2Farul ConstantaLiga I
2023-02-18Farul Constanta2-0Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
2022-09-16Petrolul Ploiesti1-3Farul ConstantaLiga I

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match