Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti: model vs market
| Source | Farul Constanta | Draw | Petrolul Ploiesti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 31% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.31.
- The market prices Farul Constanta below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Farul Constanta, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farul Constanta | 2.31 | 2.29 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.25 | +0.10 |
| Petrolul Ploiesti | 3.07 | 3.00 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Farul Constanta and Petrolul Ploiesti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Farul Constanta / Petrolul Ploiesti)
- 1.04 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Farul Constanta / Petrolul Ploiesti)
- 1.16 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Farul Constanta goals. Columns: Petrolul Ploiesti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farul Constanta | 41% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Petrolul Ploiesti | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Farul Constanta or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Petrolul Ploiesti) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Farul Constanta win by 2+ | 24% | 4.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Farul Constanta and Petrolul Ploiesti recent form
Farul Constanta
1W 4D 1L
Petrolul Ploiesti
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Farul Constanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Petrolul Ploiesti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Farul Constanta at home only, Petrolul Ploiesti away only.
Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Farul Constanta 3 · draws 0 · Petrolul Ploiesti 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Farul Constanta | 2-0 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I |
| 2026-01-25 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 0-1 | Farul Constanta | Liga I |
| 2025-09-01 | Farul Constanta | 2-1 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Corvinul Hunedoara vs FC Voluntari — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti 2026-10-09
- FCSB v Oţelul — match page 2026-10-10
- FC Botosani vs Uta Arad — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Arges Pitesti v CFR 1907 Cluj — match page 2026-10-10
- Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid 2026-10-10
- Csikszereda v Universitatea Craiova — match page 2026-10-10