Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta preview
In the Liga I fixture on 2026-10-17, Universitatea Craiova has a 66% chance to win against Farul Constanta, who has a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% probability. The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 64%, while both teams to score stands at 50%.
Universitatea Craiova's expected goals are 2.50, compared to Farul Constanta's 0.77. Recent form shows Universitatea Craiova with three wins in their last five matches, while Farul Constanta has only one win in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating potential uncertainty in the outcome.
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta: model vs market
| Source | Universitatea Craiova | Draw | Farul Constanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Published | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | +6% | -2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universitatea Craiova below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universitatea Craiova, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 1.50 | 1.40 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 4.55 | +0.77 |
| Farul Constanta | 6.30 | 6.45 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (Universitatea Craiova / Farul Constanta)
- 1.38 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Universitatea Craiova / Farul Constanta)
- 0.65 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universitatea Craiova goals. Columns: Farul Constanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitatea Craiova | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Farul Constanta | 13% | 7.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universitatea Craiova or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Farul Constanta) | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitatea Craiova win by 2+ | 49% | 2.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta recent form
Universitatea Craiova
4W 1D 1L
Farul Constanta
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universitatea Craiova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Farul Constanta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Universitatea Craiova at home only, Farul Constanta away only.
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Universitatea Craiova 1 · draws 0 · Farul Constanta 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Farul Constanta | 4-1 | Universitatea Craiova | Liga I |
| 2025-09-14 | Universitatea Craiova | 2-0 | Farul Constanta | Liga I |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Oţelul v Csikszereda — match page 2026-10-16
- Dinamo Bucuresti v FC Botosani — match page 2026-10-16
- Petrolul Ploiesti v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — match page 2026-10-17
- FC Voluntari vs FCSB — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Uta Arad vs CFR 1907 Cluj 2026-10-17
- Universitatea Cluj vs Arges Pitesti — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Rapid vs Corvinul Hunedoara 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Universitatea Craiova, previous: Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe: odds and pick
- Universitatea Craiova, next: Inter Club d'Escaldes – Universitatea Craiova, 2026-10-22
- Farul Constanta, previous: Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti prediction