Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe preview
In the Liga I match between Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, the 1X2 probabilities show Petrolul Ploiesti at 47%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 13%. Petrolul's expected goals stand at 1.53, while Sepsi's is lower at 0.84, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the match could see different outcomes if both teams score, which our model suggests has a 46% chance, or if the total goals exceed 2.5, with a probability of 42%. Recent form shows Petrolul with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-W-L, while Sepsi has struggled with L-L-W-L-W-D. This context could impact the final result.
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe: model vs market
| Source | Petrolul Ploiesti | Draw | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | +8% | 0% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Petrolul Ploiesti below the model: +8.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Petrolul Ploiesti, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrolul Ploiesti | 1.96 | 2.07 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.17 | 3.30 | +0.12 |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 3.92 | 3.35 | -0.57 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Petrolul Ploiesti / Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe)
- 1.04 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Petrolul Ploiesti / Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe)
- 1.17 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Petrolul Ploiesti goals. Columns: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 47% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Petrolul Ploiesti or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Petrolul Ploiesti win by 2+ | 28% | 3.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe recent form
Petrolul Ploiesti
3W 1D 2L
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Petrolul Ploiesti at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Petrolul Ploiesti at home only, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Oţelul v Csikszereda — match page 2026-10-16
- Dinamo Bucuresti v FC Botosani — match page 2026-10-16
- Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta 2026-10-17
- FC Voluntari vs FCSB — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Uta Arad vs CFR 1907 Cluj 2026-10-17
- Universitatea Cluj vs Arges Pitesti — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Rapid vs Corvinul Hunedoara 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Petrolul Ploiesti, previous: Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti prediction
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, previous: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe v Dinamo Bucuresti analysis