Updated

Liga I · Matchday 11

Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj

· Stadionul Orasenesc, Ovidiu· Referee Andrei Chivulete

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Arges Pitesti to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Arges PitestiDrawCFR 1907 Cluj

Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceArges PitestiDrawCFR 1907 Cluj
Model39%31%30%
Market35%31%34%
Published36%31%33%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Arges Pitesti, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

Opened 2.43Now 2.63 +0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Arges Pitesti2.432.63+0.20
Draw3.053.00-0.05
CFR 1907 Cluj2.972.68-0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Arges Pitesti and CFR 1907 Cluj expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.26Arges Pitesti
1.08CFR 1907 Cluj
Total expected goals
2.34
Attack rating (Arges Pitesti / CFR 1907 Cluj)
0.63 / 1.08
Defence rating (Arges Pitesti / CFR 1907 Cluj)
0.95 / 1.32

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 9.1% 5.6% 2.0% 0.7% 1 10.8% 14.4% 7.1% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.6% 8.3% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 3 3.2% 3.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Arges Pitesti goals. Columns: CFR 1907 Cluj goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Arges Pitesti36%2.78
Draw31%3.26
CFR 1907 Cluj33%3.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.41
Under 2.558%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.05
No51%1.95
Double chance1X (Arges Pitesti or draw)67%1.50
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or CFR 1907 Cluj)64%1.56
Handicap -1Arges Pitesti win by 2+18%5.57
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Arges Pitesti and CFR 1907 Cluj recent form

Arges Pitesti 0W 2D 4L
CFR 1907 Cluj 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Arges Pitesti at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CFR 1907 Cluj away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Arges Pitesti at home only, CFR 1907 Cluj away only.

Expected lineups

Arges Pitesti lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 77 I. Nikić
  2. 26 D. Oancea
  3. 23 F. Borţa
  4. 15 Guilherme Garutti
  5. 2 A. Tofan
  6. 25 Tiago Gonçalves
  7. 22 V. Raţă
  8. 16 I. Rădescu
  9. 11 Y. Pîrvu
  10. 92 T. Luvambo
  11. 17 Ricardo Matos

Bench: M. Mamadou, Daniel Sandu, C. Micovschi, P. Dulcea, G. Gheorghe, M. Serban, C. Căbuz, O. Adefunyibomi, X. Emmers, S. Balaure

CFR 1907 Cluj lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 31 O. Vâlceanu
  2. 42 R. Pantalon
  3. 41 A. Krešić
  4. 3 I. Gelashvili
  5. 14 Simão Rocha
  6. 18 E. Omić
  7. 6 O. Perianu
  8. 47 C. Braun
  9. 17 L. Biliboc
  10. 11 A. Cordea
  11. 9 S. Dražić

Bench: A. Nalić, A. Paun, S. Buș, A. Țîrlea, A. Ziblim, B. Omrani, M. Camora, A. Sfait, V. Kun, Á. Tordai, J. Dumas

Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Arges Pitesti 2 · draws 2 · CFR 1907 Cluj 6.

Arges PitestiDrawsCFR 1907 Cluj
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-22CFR 1907 Cluj1-1Arges PitestiLiga I
2026-04-17Arges Pitesti0-1CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
2025-11-29Arges Pitesti3-0CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
2025-07-27CFR 1907 Cluj0-2Arges PitestiLiga I
2024-10-29Arges Pitesti2-2CFR 1907 ClujCupa României
2023-04-06CFR 1907 Cluj1-0Arges PitestiCupa României
2023-02-19CFR 1907 Cluj3-1Arges PitestiLiga I
2022-09-19Arges Pitesti0-1CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
2022-05-07Arges Pitesti0-6CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
2022-04-04CFR 1907 Cluj2-0Arges PitestiLiga I

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match