Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

Villarreal vs Napoli

· Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal· Referee Daniel Siebert

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Villarreal to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VillarrealDrawNapoli

Why this pick: Villarreal vs Napoli

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Napoli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VillarrealNapoli
2.55 xG per 90 1.85
2.22 npxG per 90 1.76
12.5 PPDA 16.8
13.3 Deep completions per 90 9.8
1.79 xPTS per 90 1.92

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Villarreal vs Napoli: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVillarrealDrawNapoli
Model50%24%27%
Market46%26%28%
Published47%25%28%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.44.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Villarreal vs Napoli odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.20Now 2.10 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Villarreal2.202.10-0.10
Draw3.563.70+0.14
Napoli3.103.40+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Villarreal and Napoli expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99Villarreal
1.44Napoli
Total expected goals
3.43
Attack rating (Villarreal / Napoli)
1.36 / 1.08
Defence rating (Villarreal / Napoli)
1.05 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Villarreal vs Napoli score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 3.7% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 1 5.5% 10.2% 6.7% 3.2% 1.6% 2 6.4% 9.2% 6.7% 3.2% 1.6% 3 4.3% 6.1% 4.4% 2.1% 1.1% 4+ 3.4% 4.8% 3.5% 1.7% 0.8%

Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Villarreal vs Napoli goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Villarreal vs Napoli

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Villarreal47%2.14
Draw25%3.94
Napoli28%3.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%3.00
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.50
No33%3.01
Double chance1X (Villarreal or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Napoli)53%1.88
Handicap -1Villarreal win by 2+29%3.43
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Villarreal and Napoli recent form

Villarreal 2W 0D 4L
Napoli 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Villarreal absences

  • N. Pepe eye injury
  • T. Buchanan muscle injury

Napoli absences

  • A. Buongiorno knee injury
  • A. Vergara calf injury
  • Alisson Santos muscle injury
  • C. Favasuli thigh injury
  • F. Anguissa groin injury
  • L. Marianucci off the roster
  • M. Olivera groin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Villarreal lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Luíz Júnior
  2. 20 Carlos Romero
  3. 12 Renato Veiga
  4. 6 Pau Navarro
  5. 15 S. Mouriño
  6. 10 Alberto Moleiro
  7. 18 P. Gueye
  8. 24 N. Saliba
  9. 14 Santi Comesaña
  10. 9 G. Mikautadze
  11. 7 Gerard Moreno

Bench: Logan Costa, A. Freeman, A. Diatta, J. Foyth, Ilias Akhomach, Rubén Gómez, C. Macia, T. Oluwaseyi, Ayoze Pérez, Sergi Cardona, N. El Jmili

Napoli lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 32 V. Milinković-Savić
  2. 5 B. Badiashile
  3. 16 Rafa Marín
  4. 13 Amir Rrahmani
  5. 22 G. Di Lorenzo
  6. 8 S. McTominay
  7. 6 B. Gilmour
  8. 21 M. Politano
  9. 11 K. De Bruyne
  10. 23 Giovane
  11. 19 R. Højlund

Bench: A. Meret, David Neres, N. Contini, L. Lucca, S. Beukema, L. Spinazzola, S. Lobotka, N. Lang

Villarreal vs Napoli head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Villarreal 2 · draws 1 · Napoli 2.

VillarrealDrawsNapoli
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-12-17Napoli2-3VillarrealFriendlies Clubs
2016-02-25Napoli1-1VillarrealUEFA Europa League
2016-02-18Villarreal1-0NapoliUEFA Europa League
2011-12-07Villarreal0-2NapoliUEFA Champions League
2011-09-27Napoli2-0VillarrealUEFA Champions League

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match