Why this pick: Villarreal vs Napoli
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Napoli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Villarreal vs Napoli: model vs market
| Source | Villarreal | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.33.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Villarreal and Napoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Villarreal / Napoli)
- 1.49 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Villarreal / Napoli)
- 1.08 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Villarreal vs Napoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Villarreal vs Napoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Villarreal vs Napoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Napoli | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Villarreal or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Napoli) | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win by 2+ | 36% | 2.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Villarreal and Napoli recent form
Villarreal
2W 0D 4L
Napoli
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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