Lens vs Sporting CP: model vs market
| Source | Lens | Draw | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.70.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lens and Sporting CP expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Lens / Sporting CP)
- 1.41 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Lens / Sporting CP)
- 0.96 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lens vs Sporting CP score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lens goals. Columns: Sporting CP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lens vs Sporting CP goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lens vs Sporting CP
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Sporting CP | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lens or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting CP) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win by 2+ | 26% | 3.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lens and Sporting CP recent form
Lens
2W 1D 3L
Sporting CP
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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