Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

Lens vs Sporting CP

· Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens· Referee Igor Pajac

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Lens to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LensDrawSporting CP

Lens vs Sporting CP: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLensDrawSporting CP
Model45%23%32%
Market38%26%37%
Published39%25%36%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.68.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lens vs Sporting CP odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lens, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.45Now 2.55 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lens2.452.55+0.10
Draw3.753.73-0.02
Sporting CP2.602.61+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lens and Sporting CP expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.00Lens
1.68Sporting CP
Total expected goals
3.68
Attack rating (Lens / Sporting CP)
1.37 / 1.46
Defence rating (Lens / Sporting CP)
0.90 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lens vs Sporting CP score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2% 1 4.2% 9.3% 7.1% 4.0% 2.4% 2 5.1% 8.5% 7.1% 4.0% 2.4% 3 3.4% 5.7% 4.8% 2.7% 1.6% 4+ 2.7% 4.5% 3.8% 2.1% 1.3%

Rows: Lens goals. Columns: Sporting CP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lens vs Sporting CP goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lens vs Sporting CP

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lens39%2.54
Draw25%3.99
Sporting CP36%2.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.47
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.47
Double chance1X (Lens or draw)64%1.55
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Sporting CP)61%1.65
Handicap -1Lens win by 2+26%3.85
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lens and Sporting CP recent form

Lens 2W 1D 3L
Sporting CP 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Lens absences

  • A. Sima muscle injury
  • I. Jourdren off the roster
  • J. Chavez thigh injury
  • J. Gradit injury
  • M. Diarra off the roster
  • M. Nawrocki knee injury

Sporting CP absences

  • N. Santos muscle injury
  • R. Zalazar injury
  • Z. Debast injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Lens lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 R. Risser
  2. 32 K. Antonio
  3. 25 I. Ganiou
  4. 6 S. Baidoo
  5. 14 M. Udol
  6. 21 A. Haidara
  7. 27 M. Cuisance
  8. 23 Saud Abdulhamid
  9. 28 J. Kadile
  10. 10 F. Thauvin
  11. 29 F. Ivanović

Bench: R. Aguilar, N. Čelik, A. Bulatović, F. Sotoca, Y. Titraoui, T. Hazard, O. Édouard, M. Gorgelin, J. Todibo, M. Skóraś, S. Sagnan, M. Soares

Sporting CP lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Kaique
  2. 20 M. Araújo
  3. 25 Gonçalo Inácio
  4. 72 Eduardo Quaresma
  5. 22 Iván Fresneda
  6. 5 Sergi Altimira
  7. 8 João Simões
  8. 19 N. Irankunda
  9. 77 I. Doumbia
  10. 10 Geny Catamo
  11. 97 L. Suárez

Bench: Rui Silva, S. Andersen, F. Ioannidis, Rafael Ferreira Nel, G. Vagiannidis, M. Zekri, Pedro Lima, J. Derry, Luis Guilherme, Ibrahima Ba, Flávio Gonçalves, Eduardo Felicíssimo

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match