Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig preview
In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Real Madrid and RasenBallsport Leipzig, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Madrid at 61%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (8%). The expected goals indicate Real Madrid at 2.64 and RasenBallsport Leipzig at 1.50, suggesting a strong attacking performance from the home side.
The model also predicts a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 73%. However, if RasenBallsport Leipzig can improve their recent form, which includes two losses in their last three matches, they might challenge Real Madrid more effectively than expected.
Why this pick: Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Madrid 10, RasenBallsport Leipzig 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: model vs market
| Source | Real Madrid | Draw | RasenBallsport Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Real Madrid and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.81
- Attack rating (Real Madrid / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
- 1.29 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Real Madrid / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
- 0.78 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 21% | 4.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Madrid or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or RasenBallsport Leipzig) | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 39% | 2.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Real Madrid and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form
Real Madrid
4W 0D 2L
RasenBallsport Leipzig
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Madrid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
RasenBallsport Leipzig away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Madrid at home only, RasenBallsport Leipzig away only.
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Before and after this match
- Real Madrid, previous: Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, previous: Bayern Munich v RasenBallsport Leipzig analysis
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, next: Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig prediction