Lille vs Galatasaray Prediction & Betting Tips 21/10/2026

Lille vs Galatasaray preview

Lille faces Galatasaray with a 51% chance of winning compared to 25% for Galatasaray. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. The model also predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 65%.

Lille's expected goals are 1.99, while Galatasaray's are lower at 1.36. Recent form shows Lille with three wins in their last six matches, while Galatasaray has won four of their last six. A draw is possible, given the 24% probability, which could disrupt the expected outcomes.

Lille vs Galatasaray: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lille	Draw	Galatasaray
Model	51%	23%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	51%	23%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.43.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Lille and Galatasaray expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.04Lille

1.43Galatasaray

Total expected goals: 3.47
Attack rating (Lille / Galatasaray): 0.90 / 1.12
Defence rating (Lille / Galatasaray): 1.00 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lille vs Galatasaray score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 3.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.7% 1 5.5% 10.0% 6.5% 3.1% 1.5% 2 6.5% 9.3% 6.6% 3.1% 1.5% 3 4.4% 6.3% 4.5% 2.1% 1.0% 4+ 3.6% 5.2% 3.7% 1.7% 0.9%

Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Galatasaray goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lille vs Galatasaray goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 67%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lille vs Galatasaray

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lille	51%	1.96
	Draw	23%	4.31
	Galatasaray	26%	3.86
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67%	1.49
	Under 2.5	33%	3.06
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.49
	No	33%	3.03
Double chance	1X (Lille or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Galatasaray)	49%	2.04
Handicap -1	Lille win by 2+	30%	3.29
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer