Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips 21/10/2026

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal preview

In the UEFA Champions League match between Bayern Munich and Arsenal, the 1X2 probabilities show Bayern Munich at 59%, while Arsenal sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Bayern Munich's expected goals are 2.42, compared to Arsenal's 1.42, indicating a stronger offensive performance from Bayern.

However, Arsenal's recent form includes 6 matches with 5 wins, suggesting they could challenge Bayern. Additionally, both teams to score has a 70% chance, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 74%. This means that while Bayern is favored, Arsenal's form and potential to score could influence the outcome.

Why this pick: Bayern Munich vs Arsenal

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayern Munich 10, Arsenal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Bayern MunichArsenal

3.23 xG per 90 2.23

3.02 npxG per 90 2.13

7.8 PPDA 10.6

19.9 Deep completions per 90 11.0

2.40 xPTS per 90 2.12

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bayern Munich	Draw	Arsenal
Model	59%	20%	21%
Market	—	—	—
Published	59%	20%	21%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.42.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Bayern Munich and Arsenal expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.42Bayern Munich

1.42Arsenal

Total expected goals: 3.83
Attack rating (Bayern Munich / Arsenal): 1.83 / 1.31
Defence rating (Bayern Munich / Arsenal): 0.85 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 1 4.5% 8.2% 5.3% 2.5% 1.2% 2 6.3% 8.9% 6.3% 3.0% 1.5% 3 5.1% 7.2% 5.1% 2.4% 1.2% 4+ 5.4% 7.7% 5.5% 2.6% 1.3%

Rows: Bayern Munich goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 53%

Both teams to score: 70%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bayern Munich	59%	1.70
	Draw	20%	4.90
	Arsenal	21%	4.80
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.36
	Under 2.5	26%	3.79
Both teams to score	Yes	70%	1.43
	No	30%	3.31
Double chance	1X (Bayern Munich or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	80%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Arsenal)	41%	2.43
Handicap -1	Bayern Munich win by 2+	38%	2.60
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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